Bitcoin on shaky ground
The previous pump in the price of bitcoin has brought uncertainty in the market. Picking a side at this point in time is very difficult because there are a lot of arguments to defend either sides, bulls and bears.
My biggest arguments for the bulls is that bitcoin has had 3 continuous green months. This is a scenario we have seen play out just before the bull market started in 2015. An equally as important argument is that bitcoin broke above the 20 week ma. Which has shown over the past to be a very good indicator for larger market swings.
but now the bearish argument: On the weekly chart, bitcoin has not broken fully trough the EMA ribbon which has proven to be a very good support / resistance area for bitcoin. furthermore, bitcoin is right at the bottom of the GC channel. I can't help but notice that this also happened in July 2015, not fully trough the EMA ribbon and at the bottom of the GC channel. this resulted in (measured down to the wig) a 44% decline.
now my biggest concern for bitcoin is that it's price at this point isn't proportionate to it's value transport. This is visualized in the NVT which stands for network value to transactions. Bitcoin most often comes down to neutral territory when this happens.
fear and greed, a very good but painful indicator. Since 90 - 95% of traders lose money, the best thing you can do is bet against 95 percent of traders. this means that when greed in the market is high you sell and when fear in the market is high you buy. Please take a look at the alternative . me website. A quick search on google for fear greed crypto should do just fine.
I think it is possible for bitcoin to go a bit higher in the short term. However, I think that over the next weeks the price will most likely go bellow the levels it is at right now. overall I'm leaning more to the bearish side over the mid term. but since the market is like an animal and unpredictable as *** I can't do anything more than take a calculated guess.
a massive indication for me that we're in a bull market will be a golden cross on the daily.
PGrijpink out ; )
My biggest arguments for the bulls is that bitcoin has had 3 continuous green months. This is a scenario we have seen play out just before the bull market started in 2015. An equally as important argument is that bitcoin broke above the 20 week ma. Which has shown over the past to be a very good indicator for larger market swings.
but now the bearish argument: On the weekly chart, bitcoin has not broken fully trough the EMA ribbon which has proven to be a very good support / resistance area for bitcoin. furthermore, bitcoin is right at the bottom of the GC channel. I can't help but notice that this also happened in July 2015, not fully trough the EMA ribbon and at the bottom of the GC channel. this resulted in (measured down to the wig) a 44% decline.
now my biggest concern for bitcoin is that it's price at this point isn't proportionate to it's value transport. This is visualized in the NVT which stands for network value to transactions. Bitcoin most often comes down to neutral territory when this happens.
fear and greed, a very good but painful indicator. Since 90 - 95% of traders lose money, the best thing you can do is bet against 95 percent of traders. this means that when greed in the market is high you sell and when fear in the market is high you buy. Please take a look at the alternative . me website. A quick search on google for fear greed crypto should do just fine.
I think it is possible for bitcoin to go a bit higher in the short term. However, I think that over the next weeks the price will most likely go bellow the levels it is at right now. overall I'm leaning more to the bearish side over the mid term. but since the market is like an animal and unpredictable as *** I can't do anything more than take a calculated guess.
a massive indication for me that we're in a bull market will be a golden cross on the daily.
PGrijpink out ; )
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