Symmetrical triangle breakout, bull flag forming; but take care!
Обновлено
As you can see in my updated 2h chart, the triangle was in fact symmetrical; the base of the uptrend channel mislead me to think it was rather descending. Whales took advantage on the market indecision and mixed signals, and pumped the price, even if indications were rather bearish.
Such pumps are almost impossible to predict and most TAs failed here. However I should have paid attention to BTCUSDSHORTS and BTCUSDLONGS charts, they were giving some clues: shorts were accumulating exponentially, they've reached an all time high, and short liquidations would have been a matter of time.
Situation now is a bit different. Shorts were liquidating until this moment, and now we are at the same level (~24k) as at the end of March, which was not unseen before.
Some longs were also liquidated, which stopped the bulls, and now a bull flag is forming on the 2h chart. Meanwhile, some longs are accumulating, forming a bear flag on the longs chart.
Why am I telling you about this: the bull flag on BTC might rise again, but as the pole hit over the strong resistance at $7900 and was brutally rejected, big chances are to be rejected there again. The bear flag on the longs chart might mean that longs are to be massively liquidating soon, generating a steep breakdown. As another trader, PRO_Indicators, was showing (see Related Ideas), the chart patterns we currently see are highly similar with the crash in 2014, where after a triangle structure we had a breakout (pump) followed by a deep fall due to the longs liquidation by stop loss triggering and then by panic. Scaling the 2014 crash to the present situation, the dip would be between $5100 and $4300.
It is noteworthy to remind you that the initial target of my big shortened C wave (see on chart) was $5100, and D4rk Energy's target of his big descending triangle was $4880.
So we are bullish for now, and it's sure that we shall see higher price levels than the current one after the big dip, but BEWARE OF WHALES!
Such pumps are almost impossible to predict and most TAs failed here. However I should have paid attention to BTCUSDSHORTS and BTCUSDLONGS charts, they were giving some clues: shorts were accumulating exponentially, they've reached an all time high, and short liquidations would have been a matter of time.
Situation now is a bit different. Shorts were liquidating until this moment, and now we are at the same level (~24k) as at the end of March, which was not unseen before.
Some longs were also liquidated, which stopped the bulls, and now a bull flag is forming on the 2h chart. Meanwhile, some longs are accumulating, forming a bear flag on the longs chart.
Why am I telling you about this: the bull flag on BTC might rise again, but as the pole hit over the strong resistance at $7900 and was brutally rejected, big chances are to be rejected there again. The bear flag on the longs chart might mean that longs are to be massively liquidating soon, generating a steep breakdown. As another trader, PRO_Indicators, was showing (see Related Ideas), the chart patterns we currently see are highly similar with the crash in 2014, where after a triangle structure we had a breakout (pump) followed by a deep fall due to the longs liquidation by stop loss triggering and then by panic. Scaling the 2014 crash to the present situation, the dip would be between $5100 and $4300.
It is noteworthy to remind you that the initial target of my big shortened C wave (see on chart) was $5100, and D4rk Energy's target of his big descending triangle was $4880.
So we are bullish for now, and it's sure that we shall see higher price levels than the current one after the big dip, but BEWARE OF WHALES!
Заметка
Also note that the 2h RSI is impossibly high; can't stay like this for long!Заметка
I don't know why, my downtrend grey line of all maxima was moved. Putting it in the right place, the forming bull flag is actually pushing up on it. It's a detail, but it might mean that the big downtrend channel top acts as resistance and we are still ranging inside it.Заметка
The downtrend channel was pierced, so was the $7900 resistance too, after a couple of short liquidations. Now the BTCUSDSHORTS chart show a saturation at a lower level towards ~73k, sign that not many short liquidations are going to follow.Note that the RSI is 77, level that has not been reached since the first pump in December 2017! The Elliott wave has started, but expecting a retrace at the next resistance. If the retrace will not be too deep, impulse wave 3 will be very bullish; there it's a go!
But keep in mind that longs are at high level now and longs liquidations didn't say their word yet!
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.