Bitcoin Double Bottom in Play, Inside of Bull Flag

28 нояб. 2018 г.

Sunday we had the chance to break the 4100, make a (short) term reversal but even though everything was in reach the bulls were too weak and lost the fight. Since that rejection at 4100 we started to drop again and the bears slowly took control again. However this time the bulls stepped in around the 3500 several times the past few days defending that level and making a higher low. But this higher low still needs to get confirmed and the only way to do this, is break the previous high around 4100.

In my previous analysis i mentioned a possible double bottom pattern, which is still in full play at the moment. We are bumping against the resistance of this pattern at the moment, moving inside a bull flag . So far it's still holding so the chances are still there that we break up within a few hours. Second option is the bulls failing here and we start to drop again towards the 3800/3850. Where the previous triangle support is and the breakout zone of the triangle on the right.

As i showed yesterday in my updates, Alts have been improving, breaking descending trend lines since the whole crash started weeks ago AND a higher low. But also the same here, resistance still needs to break.

So things are looking much better this time than they did on Sunday, more support as a foundation for a potential bigger correction towards the 4600. Open shorts on Bitfinex are close to it's highs again, even showing a possible bearish pattern there, indicating they might drop, which could mean a short squeeze. But doing TA on open longs/shorts is not really reliable of course.

So the current 3940/60 needs to hold the next few hours, if not we could see a drop to 3800. If that support breaks as well, bears might take over once again. If we do move up from here, it is very important we make a squeeze to at least 4200ish with high volume . If we see a 50/100 point rally above the 4050, chances are very big it will fail.

For now, this bullish pattern is just a big correction. Meaning, i do not have assumptions the low is set and we rally to 5K or even 6K. Step by step, anything is possible no matter what everyone says. Let the chart and it's momentum show us the way.


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Previous analysis:

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Open longs and shorts on Bitfinex

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Now the bulls need to hold this small bull flag (4080/4150) and make another 150 point push within half an hour or so. If than happens, i am very confident about the 4600. Anything with less conviction puts the bullish plan in danger. Volume is good but not great yet.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Alts are a bit disappointing tbh, from this list NEO is the only one making a good move. Maybe they will move if Bitcoin makes another push. If these alts do not follow Bitcoin, it will most probably fail!

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Please read my previous (2) analysis as well. My general view at the moment is still, that this up move is just part of a bigger ABC correction up. With this wave being last one. But anything can happen or change in the meantime

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Seems there are still a lot of people shorting on Bitmex. So either they will win, or it could give another very big squeeze up. So my first thought is, we will stay below the 4200ish and drop again or we might even see the 4600 today.
Because the Bitmex price has been moving much lower than the mark price, which shows funding %. It will increase a lot the next period. So still a lot of bears shorting this breakout.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Bulls keep the pressure on, good sign. If they keep making higher lows on the 5 min chart and 1 min, we could see another squeeze happening. Bears are not giving up. Price difference just went up from 15 to 25 points.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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I posted a chart in my public channel, where we can see the distribution happening on Bitmex. Unfortunately i can not post it here (at least not that i know :))

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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I am afraid a Bart move might be incoming, these Bitmex bears have infinite funds it seems. If we see a quick drop below 4140, it might confirm a Bart move. Anything below 4100 is bad

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Fact that we broke this small bear flag, with decent volume, went up 50 points and got pushed down just as easily, typical Bart move. Still hope above the 4150ish

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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On the right we can see a standard Bart move. Making a bear flag and than drop again. On the left we can also see another pattern. This says, that unless we see a big push straight through the 4280ish, we still might make a drop again. All perfectly normal. Had quite the rally already.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Wow, i almost can believe what i am seeing. These bears trading on Bitmex, just are not scared at all. The difference are getting even more extreme. Just now the difference became 30 points with Gdax. I posted another one of those charts in my public channel to show it

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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I have only seen these people loose a big fight in Juli, right before the 6800 broke, when we squeezed 7400. That fight also took many hours. But the buying volume was so extremely high that day they lost the fight and 180 mil of shorts got liquidated that day. Not getting that feeling here now, that bulls are convinced of moving up.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Bart move :(

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Seems the bulls are simply not giving up yet. How can we see that? Well they turned it into a bullish wedge. Doesn't say a lot, can still move down. But shows they are pushing. Don't think these bears give up soon, maybe with a break of 4300, maybe that is the the point they might start to cover their shorts. For now, we have had quite the rally already, so nothing wrong with a healthy correction. 4000ish is still very bullish, 3850 is also okay, but makes things more neutral. It's important to watch the alts. If those get dumped, instead of just dropping, it probably means bad news.

Be back in a few hours, good luck.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Depending on how high the next push up goes, i think it might be ending now. Getting time for a decent correction down again. Creating a better foundation to attack the target around 4600.

As mentioned before, the idea is and still is, this ABC correction, with help of the double bottom pattern. If and when we get there, i will judge it from there again what the next step might be.

There is still a chance it simply moves up, but the moves up are getting smaller, usually a sign. So if the next push stays below the 4380/70, it will probably be the last one for now.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Already dropping with a small H&S, target around 4150. If we see a small bounce, and make a right shoulder, it could drop even more towards 3900/4000. Would still be a decent correction. Now the ABC idea is still in play, in case we drop even more, could be the big ABC correction i kept mentioning is already over and we drop towards the lows again. But step by step :)
So the 4150 could be an important level already.

28 нояб. 2018 г.

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Look at the Bart move on gold :) LOL

29 нояб. 2018 г.

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Seems we made another small rally from the 4100ish level. however it does feel like it is coming to an end soon. Problem is, i think a correction down should happen, since the highs are getting less strong. But the 4600ish target is already so close now with the 4400ish high. Think i am just going to watch and see first how things go before taking sides. Volume picture is not the same at the Bitcoin exchanges, so difficult there one as well.

Ideally we make a big wedge like we can see on the left. Some of the alts made quite the rallies but some like ATH and XRP are just dead.

Think we might get an answer withing an hour or 2

29 нояб. 2018 г.

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It moved down a bit too soon, to become a typical wedge, but maybe it can still work out though. At the moment it is at a support level.

29 нояб. 2018 г.

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Trying to make a new analysis now, this will probably be the chart i use for it

29 нояб. 2018 г.

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Looks like a triangle movement in the making now.

29 нояб. 2018 г.

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New Bitcoin analysis: