Greater Fool vs Black Swan

16 нояб.

On average, Bitcoin price action time cycles are synchronized in 16 month time frames. Bitcoin halving time cycles are every 4 years. The last 3 halving cycle highs occurred 12 - 16 months afterwards.

The greater fool theory is a speculative investing strategy that suggests that investors can profit by buying overvalued assets and selling them to someone else at an even higher price. When the market bubble eventually bursts, investors who bought assets based on the greater fool theory can lose a lot of money.

Black swan events can have catastrophic consequences, such as affecting the entire global economy. A black swan event is difficult to predict under normal circumstances but in hindsight appears to have been inevitable. One sign of an impending Black swan event is market participants engaging in over leveraged debt margin trading.

What does this all mean? My speculation is that you want to sell Bitcoin now before Black Friday, November 29th 2024 and then buy back before Christmas, December 25th and hold until July 2025 peak. The risk of buying crypto without taking a portion of profits during these high to low cycles is being someone else's exit liquidity and not having the dry powder to buy lower when it drops.