Bulls not ready to let bears call check mate just yet.

2 апр. 2018 г.

After three consecutive bearish candles under the bearflag it seemed as if breakout was confirmed and then suddenly a huge bullish slingshot cast the bulls upward again somehow closing back inside the bearflag and keeping it still in play and suddenly the chess match between the bears and bulls goin on inside the bearflag was back on even with the bulls down to nothing but their king left on the board and the bears with most of their pieces in tact. So the ebar flag is still in play but quickly appoaching it's end with either this candle or the very next 4hr candle being the last one in the flag, and the bulls are keeping things alive but currently the white fib line is acting as resistance keeping them in the triangle after a big effort by the bulls to blast up outside of the triangle...which so far has appeared to be an april fools bull trap for now. I still think probability favors a bearish breakdown, and now think that the AApril Fool's joke for today was this giant bull trap. However because now a bullish breakout is still very much possible I have drawn a projection trend line at where a bullish breakout could take us (around 8100-8200) Just in case this does have a bullish breakout. I still think a double bottom is likely and now that the blue 161% fib line has been redrawn I will probably enter back in around 6030 or so. with the intention of laddering in a little more if we reach the new lower fib line and laddering in a little more for any further lines of support we reach under that. If we have a bullish break out I will enter right above the neon green dashed line around $7308. you'll notice on this last bull surge we still didn't have a higher high than the last big green candle so we didn't establish a higher high meaning ebars are still in control and increasing the probability of a bearish breakdown from the flag. Still best to always be prepared for the opposite outcome. I remain short for now however ...if the current candle closes above the red triangle of the bearpennant then it may not need to reach the higher high yet to continue upward or break bullishly out of the bear pennant which would definitely give it a higher high, so very wise to watch closely now the next two 4hour candles because a close above the triangle on this one means that it still needs one more confirmation candle/ or a ton of bull volume on the following candle to confirm the breakout so it could close above the triangle on this one but then drop way under it on the next one as a bull trap....if the current candle closes inside the triangle...we will have one more candle that will be after it which will still of a slightly greater probability of breaking bearishly downward but it is wise to be patient with both outcomes before you decide to change from short to long or long to short. This is just my take and not financial advice...thanks for reading!