Bitcoin: Where's The Bottom?

20 нояб. 2022 г.

Bitcoin price is now consolidating between the 15K and 18K range. The 18,500 range high has established another lower high in the context of the bigger picture. As long as this level stays intact, it would be unreasonable to expect a spectacular bullish outcome ANY TIME SOON. What is reasonable? A test of the 14K to 12K support area.

In one of my recent streams, a troll with nothing better to do accused me of being a perma bear. The reality is, I am a Bitcoin bull, but I do NOT let my opinions get in the way of market intent. All of my articles and streams since June have had a bearish bias, simply because long term price structure and economic context favored and continue to favor a BEARISH OUTCOME. My extremely simple "less is more" market view has helped me to avoid the FTX situation (which NO ONE saw coming), and from accumulating any meaningful inventory too early. All while being completely ignorant of news, rumors, fake gurus, Twitter, and other mainstream nonsense that motivates the retail trader.

I am a believer in the idea that price factors all the known information in the world at any given moment. And right now, price structure and economic context continue to point to lower prices. The 18,500 resistance has been established as a new lower high and 20K has been completely compromised. This puts the 14K to 12K support in play which means these levels should be accounted for in terms of RISK. IF this price structure maintains itself, a test of lows is favored, but just keep in mind, that does not guarantee price WILL test these levels. There is NO way to be CERTAIN where price will go next. The best we can do is estimate risk and then determine how we want to interact with that risk. Anyone that pretends to know the future is exposing themselves as a novice, while attempting to capitalize on your ignorance.

In my precious article I pointed out the 16,300 break will activate a new sell signal which has been in play but lacks follow through. Price is not likely to move until a new catalyst surprises the market, especially in light of the holiday week on the horizon. While the short side still offers potential, the current level carries a lot of squeeze risk. The more conservative choice would be to WAIT for a signal to appear upon the test of the 18K resistance. Short squeezes happen but should not be confused with a trend reversal. Do not react. Gauge your probabilities and assess your risk. Prepare in advance for these scenarios.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful.