Inverse H&S is forming around MA 200 pointing to 13000, BTCUSD

28 апр. 2018 г.

I identified a remarkable inv. H&S in daily chart which is forming around an important BTC trend line and sharing it with you:

-It seems at least two resistance levels still are on the way to conclude BTC has been returned to uptrend by most analysts.
-One powerful is around 11700 for a long time
-The other is currently located on daily MA 200 around 9800
-A relatively big inv. H&S is forming under MA 200 as its neckline, and this makes it more interesting. Inv. H&S now is in process of shaping the last shoulder, if this shoulder touches the neckline, the target would be around 13000, above both resistance levels if successful.

This is my first idea to share, hope this be helpful in your BTC TA. If it is helpful please thumb up and comment.

K

2 мая 2018 г.

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for this idea to be successful first it needs to complete its right shoulder which is in progress, but same time the price action is forming another small H&S now that may lead us to 8300, that may postpone possibility of completing bullish inv h&s if not fade it completely:

2 мая 2018 г.

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looking at 4h chart and analyzing the right shoulder of bullish inverse h&s, it seems to be a symmetric triangle which in essence is neutral, but as originated from an uptrend can be considered very slightly bullish toward daily MA 200 in case of break.

Further, market sentiment is still positive.

2 мая 2018 г.

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overall we are in a no trade zone, as there is no strong indication of direction at this time. Just patience !

3 мая 2018 г.

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Due to breakout upside from symmetric triangle, the head and shoulder is ruled out now and in a few hours right shoulder of inv. h&s pointing to 13k will be complete and the greatest possibility is breaking out upside from daily MA 200 !

3 мая 2018 г.

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As the neckline (MA 200) of inverted h&s is angled upward, per investopedia it is enough that price action to cross right shoulder armpit hight, which is around 9750~9800 in this case, to assume the pattern is complete. When pattern complete we must wait to upward movement confirmation to enter the trade.

3 мая 2018 г.

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price touched the lower boundary of resistance area and retraced, a bull flag formed around 9700

5 мая 2018 г.

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The inverse Head and Shoulders last week identified is now complete and rocket seems is ready for fire to the destination !
with some obstacles on the way, the greatest seems to be long time 11700 resistance line.

5 мая 2018 г.

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While inv h&s is complete around 9800 now, but I think passing 10k barrier which is a psychological wall and same time is exactly on daily MA 200 can take some time to pass.

5 мая 2018 г.

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a user @talak has explanation of difficulties of passing 10k :

6 мая 2018 г.

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OK, price action touched 9990 and bounced, now correction is underway after a head and shoulders completed as per chart bellow; target seems to be around 9480 near 0.50 fib retracement in last major bullish struxture from ~9210 :

6 мая 2018 г.

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correction: Fib retracement 0.50 is around 9600 , target could be near this; 9480 I stated above is the loose target of h&s formed.

6 мая 2018 г.

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9612 touched down and bounced, so 0.50 fib materialized, next fib is 0.618 is on 9510 near target of h&s i.e. 9480 , but I think it may hold 0.50 and not going lower to 0.618

6 мая 2018 г.

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It seems price is in course of reversing at this stage and around 9600, the price decline rate is slowed as 15 m chart shows a bullish divergence in RSI.

6 мая 2018 г.

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so far price touched down 9454 (around fib 0.618) and bounced backed over 9600 and gaining momentum.
But one thing to mention I think for retracement calculations it was better to base the bullish structure on 8800 than 9210 that I had based. Because 9200 range was a breakout within the bullish rally from 8800.

7 мая 2018 г.

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Now, as I wrote in my last post, I am sure the base point I chose for fib retracement calculations is not suitable, and 8800 is the one should have been chosen. Based on this base point, i.e the start point of latest uptrend, price retraced to 9260 or fib 0.618 by now, peak was at 9990.

8 мая 2018 г.

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Price pierced 0.618 and bounced back up, now consolidating around 9380 level. The inverse h&s is still valid if price action make another shoulder. If shoulder to be complete and break 10k barrier then can think of upward 13k target.

plz check new update:
"Fractal , it seems BTC repeating last month breakout behavior"