Bitcoin - Possible Failure of Head and Shoulder Top

14 июн. 2019 г.

I did not realize that the right shoulder no longer had the qualities of distribution, which is volatility ; instead, it seemed much more stable which is a hint of accumulation occurring once more. It is highly probable that this pattern fails, however, there is supply at low 9000 levels. There might be some front selling to push the price down, but it looks like there will be a push to invalidate the head and shoulders top and since there are a multitude of shorts, there might be a following short squeeze.

It is highly possible that there is a rally to 9200 and this might follow the Wyckoff Distribution with a upthrust and a upthrust after distribution to hunt for shorts as this rally has pushed through. In addition, because the price seemed more stable, it is possible that this is accumulation for more moves to the upside.

As for the RSI, it bounced off of a point higher than 40, thus, this is bullish despite the divergences and this means that there are likely more moves to the upside.

Previous Analysis:

14 июн. 2019 г.

Заметка

14 июн. 2019 г.

Заметка

If I were expecting a Wyckoff distribution I would be looking for signs of an Upthrust after distribution, which would look something such as the image presented below.

19 июн. 2019 г.

Заметка

This will probably be the last update on this trade, but the current movements look like distribution because the volatility has increased significantly and the volume is increasing on the selling.
But it did make a higher low and the support currently looks strong, so I wouldn't be surprised to see an ascending triangle fill out and break to the upside.
Out of these two conditions, I favor the bearish one once more.