Bitcoin - It Starts With Pessimism and Ends with FOMO
Over the years I have found that markets generally trend to the upside over time. New participants create new buyers and old school investors like myself, well we simply do not sell our gold. I know there will be 5 comments on how gold has real world uses, you can hold it in your hand, and blah blah blah. Hey you are talking to a guy that loves gold so there is no hate for gold here, but in reality it is a perceived value. Bitcoin is no different than gold or the dollar bill. It is a perceived value for goods and services. I just added 10 comments by someone on how the dollar is backed by anything other than Faith! A quick little lesson on the dollar.
At one time the dollar was redeemable by the bearer in gold or silver bullion. However after the invention of FED that soon changed. In 1928 dollars were no longer just printed by the US Treasury they were printed by the Federal reserve as well. The Treasury printed their last gold and silver certificates in 1928 which were still redeemable to the bearer on demand in gold, however the Federal reserve started printing what we currently use today. The 1928 Federal Reserve notes were redeemable by the bearer in gold OR other lawful money. HUH? The big switch, and from that point on the printing press never ended.
But I digress, currently the USD is backed by guess what, debt! This is like going to buy a house and your collateral is your outstanding Visa Bill. Hey it is printed right on the paper, take a look in your wallet, it is not backed by anything. It simply is a perceived value.
So with sooo many bears still out there, still calling for a slip into the Abyss of 1500 Bitcoin, why is the market moving up? Well quite simply there is no one left to sell. Unlike gold there is only a limited supply and investors like me, buy and hold. The coins that I hold are not circulated and since there is a limited amount, the more that come out of circulation, the less there are on the market to buy. Simple supply and demand of which many perma bears have forgotten about. And no Bitcoin is not going to fade away, it is too mainstream now, if anything the value will continue to grow.
Yet pessimism is abound and I see comment after comment that "I will add when it hits 1500" or some off the wall number like that. Hey maybe we get there, but pessimists never add. If we do get to 1500 they will simply switch to "I will add when it hits $500". See pessimists are pessimists for a reason, they are always looking for confirmation or an excuse to buy or sell. They remain pessimistic about everything, yet as Bitcoin starts to rally you will hear them say "I will add on the next pullback". Yet when it happens they don't because they are pessimistic. Only when Bitcoin is on a hard rally do pessimists change their tune and this is when they become pessimistic the other way as in the Fear of Missing Out.
See the key word here is FEAR. Pessimists are just scared little people and they fear buying because it may go lower, and the fear of missing out has them buying at the wrong time. Yes they will tell you all the "buy when there is blood in the streets", but when there is blood in the streets, they are running like crypto kiddies.
In short I am always the optimist. And at times I take some pain for being one. But I am not second guessing myself whether this is the bottom or not, I am already in and have added a nice little chunk lower. Just like gold I do not worry about if it goes lower, I just know I want to buy more when it is low. Eventually gold and bitcoin will rally to new highs, and this is where taking the long term approach pays off. At least this has been my experience, but heck, those guys with 2 years of investing and trading probably know more than me.
In the end every bull market starts with pessimists and ends with FOMO. Ask yourself are there more pessimists around you or people fearful they are missing out. Once you determine this position the other way! End of the year target 9600!
At one time the dollar was redeemable by the bearer in gold or silver bullion. However after the invention of FED that soon changed. In 1928 dollars were no longer just printed by the US Treasury they were printed by the Federal reserve as well. The Treasury printed their last gold and silver certificates in 1928 which were still redeemable to the bearer on demand in gold, however the Federal reserve started printing what we currently use today. The 1928 Federal Reserve notes were redeemable by the bearer in gold OR other lawful money. HUH? The big switch, and from that point on the printing press never ended.
But I digress, currently the USD is backed by guess what, debt! This is like going to buy a house and your collateral is your outstanding Visa Bill. Hey it is printed right on the paper, take a look in your wallet, it is not backed by anything. It simply is a perceived value.
So with sooo many bears still out there, still calling for a slip into the Abyss of 1500 Bitcoin, why is the market moving up? Well quite simply there is no one left to sell. Unlike gold there is only a limited supply and investors like me, buy and hold. The coins that I hold are not circulated and since there is a limited amount, the more that come out of circulation, the less there are on the market to buy. Simple supply and demand of which many perma bears have forgotten about. And no Bitcoin is not going to fade away, it is too mainstream now, if anything the value will continue to grow.
Yet pessimism is abound and I see comment after comment that "I will add when it hits 1500" or some off the wall number like that. Hey maybe we get there, but pessimists never add. If we do get to 1500 they will simply switch to "I will add when it hits $500". See pessimists are pessimists for a reason, they are always looking for confirmation or an excuse to buy or sell. They remain pessimistic about everything, yet as Bitcoin starts to rally you will hear them say "I will add on the next pullback". Yet when it happens they don't because they are pessimistic. Only when Bitcoin is on a hard rally do pessimists change their tune and this is when they become pessimistic the other way as in the Fear of Missing Out.
See the key word here is FEAR. Pessimists are just scared little people and they fear buying because it may go lower, and the fear of missing out has them buying at the wrong time. Yes they will tell you all the "buy when there is blood in the streets", but when there is blood in the streets, they are running like crypto kiddies.
In short I am always the optimist. And at times I take some pain for being one. But I am not second guessing myself whether this is the bottom or not, I am already in and have added a nice little chunk lower. Just like gold I do not worry about if it goes lower, I just know I want to buy more when it is low. Eventually gold and bitcoin will rally to new highs, and this is where taking the long term approach pays off. At least this has been my experience, but heck, those guys with 2 years of investing and trading probably know more than me.
In the end every bull market starts with pessimists and ends with FOMO. Ask yourself are there more pessimists around you or people fearful they are missing out. Once you determine this position the other way! End of the year target 9600!
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.