BTC's moment of truth

23 апр. 2020 г.

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Halving is just a few weeks away. The whole narrative about halving being BTC's watershed, a major turning point that would propel the next BTC bull run, has investors and traders anxiously waiting for the day of reckoning to arrive. Will it arrive on time or will it arrive late? Will it even arrive at all? Can the current consolidation and sideway movement be interpreted as the slow build-up toward the explosive price movement?

Derivative market has been quiet and sending out mixed signals, with big three (Bitmex, Okex and Binance) all seeing increase in OI, but decline in volume.

There are some good news on the institutional side.

According to glassnode, the number of Bitcoin whales with at least 1,000 BTC to their name is now higher than at any point in the past two years.

Both Grayscale Bitcoin trust and Grayscale Ethereum trust experienced record quarterly inflows of $388.9 million and $110.0 million, respectively, according to the most recent Grayscale report. In addition, 88% of investment in Q1 came from institutional investors, dominated by hedge funds, further signaling the increased institutional demand.

Perhaps, coincidentally, last BTC bull run that started in Nov. 2015 was also initiated by the same low volatility market condition that BTC is experiencing now.

Lastly, one can simply never overlook the power of the recent tether issuance.

To me, the best long opportunity is 5.8k to 6.5k if the price gets there.

This will be the first economic downturn in Bitcoin's history and how Bitcoin handles it will have the profound impact on the investor's perception of its scarce digital gold status. Some may say that it will forever just be the speculative asset and some may even argue that it will go to zero and that its whole 11 years of existence is just one gigantic bubble. Whatever the case may be, it will not be a quiet affair.