Bitcoin: BTCUSD Reality Bites
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Bitcoin Update Reality Bites
This is the Coinbase chart of Bitcoin and right now probably the most reliable, but you might prefer Bitfinex or Bitstamp
(next uploads for those 2). This chart shows the massive failure of the head and shoulders set-up with a tiny pin just
violating the upper parallel before catastrophic failure - this chart was good and true - no false break, just a small pin of
deadly intent from the high. This is my bad, certainly not the chart's. Not only was the call over-cocky/confident but it had
no plan B attached. That is unforgiveable, a sackable offense. Yes, it's so easy to say now, but that failure was screaming get
short on the break-down and now look at what that failure has done to Bitcoin since. Abject apologies. China's continued
actions to curb Bitcoin trading is putting a dampener on liquidity - who would challenge that government unless a
whale with an account a long way from China? Pretty much as soon as it went 'mainstream' it's been fighting off mainstream
realities ever since. Reality bites. Hard.
That massive pin bar of selling intent from under 12472 tells us how strong the downward pressure remains here. Bitcoin is
unloved right now, but needs this flush out, sadly, of all those Jonny-come-latelys who arrived at the party way too late in
the evening. Markets are cruel. Reality can be too. We have to follow the chart and not our hearts. You got the picture.
In nearer term Bitcoin is trapped within the larger set of parallels shown on chart and trying to rally now from the long
term dynamic that, on Coinbase chart only, has underpinned all declines so far at 9926 where longer and shorter term dynamics intersected last night...Bitcoin is not dead and
buried whilst it can hold up here at 9930...and below here is the parallel at 9726 now which should halt the decline if the
longer term dynamic fails ...but this lower parallel must hold up on all retests from here. failure to do so would be
catastrophic for the bull case at any point, tipping Bitcoin further into the mire an signalling that test of 8300 that so
many are willing Bitcoin to see before looking to buy.
It's a speccy buy down here with a stop below the low at 99900 on Coinbase feed back to 10700 - but will need to break
above here and hold to reach next upside target at 11330-11433. A move up/down though resistance/support line is likely to lead to a test of the next, though dynamics almost always weigh heavier than fixed lines of support/resistance.
It's already rallied 500 oints as this is written and is now testing the underrside of resistance and likley to come off
again...needs to break above 10730 here to be able to push on higher to next line in sand, as per chart.
For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80%
of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or
the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS
failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin -
that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he
wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We
need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants
truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade
opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has
left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then
come back to retest the little dynamic
This is the Coinbase chart of Bitcoin and right now probably the most reliable, but you might prefer Bitfinex or Bitstamp
(next uploads for those 2). This chart shows the massive failure of the head and shoulders set-up with a tiny pin just
violating the upper parallel before catastrophic failure - this chart was good and true - no false break, just a small pin of
deadly intent from the high. This is my bad, certainly not the chart's. Not only was the call over-cocky/confident but it had
no plan B attached. That is unforgiveable, a sackable offense. Yes, it's so easy to say now, but that failure was screaming get
short on the break-down and now look at what that failure has done to Bitcoin since. Abject apologies. China's continued
actions to curb Bitcoin trading is putting a dampener on liquidity - who would challenge that government unless a
whale with an account a long way from China? Pretty much as soon as it went 'mainstream' it's been fighting off mainstream
realities ever since. Reality bites. Hard.
That massive pin bar of selling intent from under 12472 tells us how strong the downward pressure remains here. Bitcoin is
unloved right now, but needs this flush out, sadly, of all those Jonny-come-latelys who arrived at the party way too late in
the evening. Markets are cruel. Reality can be too. We have to follow the chart and not our hearts. You got the picture.
In nearer term Bitcoin is trapped within the larger set of parallels shown on chart and trying to rally now from the long
term dynamic that, on Coinbase chart only, has underpinned all declines so far at 9926 where longer and shorter term dynamics intersected last night...Bitcoin is not dead and
buried whilst it can hold up here at 9930...and below here is the parallel at 9726 now which should halt the decline if the
longer term dynamic fails ...but this lower parallel must hold up on all retests from here. failure to do so would be
catastrophic for the bull case at any point, tipping Bitcoin further into the mire an signalling that test of 8300 that so
many are willing Bitcoin to see before looking to buy.
It's a speccy buy down here with a stop below the low at 99900 on Coinbase feed back to 10700 - but will need to break
above here and hold to reach next upside target at 11330-11433. A move up/down though resistance/support line is likely to lead to a test of the next, though dynamics almost always weigh heavier than fixed lines of support/resistance.
It's already rallied 500 oints as this is written and is now testing the underrside of resistance and likley to come off
again...needs to break above 10730 here to be able to push on higher to next line in sand, as per chart.
For those who like pattern spotting there have been three or four very good sell points off the Coinbase chart. Maybe 80%
of the few people who read this will have Bull hats on, are inherent, full-on bulls. Only 10 to 20% will be bears. If one or
the other we will miss 50% of all trading oppotunites, roughly. Who was looking for sell signals recently (after that RHS
failure) ? No, because most of us are bulls we're only looking for positive signals. Try to be dispassionate about Bitcoin -
that is not easy, being as we're humans. We're programmed to want to join the herd. A bison gets FOMO too, that's why he
wants inside the herd and not out. Penguins too. But we are not penguins. We need to stop acting like one. Agreed? We
need to be like doctors who will get sued for giving the wrong diagnosis, however bad that might be. The patient wants
truth not platitudes. That's how we need to view Bitcoin. If we love it too much we cloud judgement and lose trade
opportunities. So strive to be dispassionate. Or it will cost you roughly half of all opportunities. Look at the trail Bitcoin has
left...get down off your horse and look...look how good those sells were on the breaks...how the first two break and then
come back to retest the little dynamic
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Bitcoin Coiinbase Chart Updated with added support/resistance (best estimates for today)Заметка
Coinbase Longer Term ChartBitcoin still Ok whilst above here, though being tested to limits, close to anyway. It's holding up but lacking real buying intent even now
Will US ride to rescue? The chart will tell us that.
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Coinbase ChartHaving rallied well from the blue support line, Bitcoin is pushing up to 10k in a classic bear squeeze - a near term sell from 10000-10110 with stops above looking for 500-600 points or so - has to break and hold above 10110 to tempt more bulls long up to 10700-10800 - so day traders can reverse back long if we see it happen and still have enough in the trade to warrant it.
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CoinbaseBitcoin is back to being a buy on dips towards 10000 on Coinbase with stops 100 lower (please see top left of sumasatradon page for more details)
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Bitcoin So we are long from around 10k and a little above ...let's stay that way
RHS with 1700 points upside from the neckline...being retested now...if not already long can get long or add.
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If long from around 10k can take 850 or so profit here and chill or run it and raise the stop to not too far below 10700 looking for 11600 minimum upside target ...can still come all the way back to the neckline one more time though...hence the stop.Заметка
Flags and FOMODid you maybe not catch the rally early enough today and are kicking yourself for not acting sooner? Don't. It's pointless (literally). All you need to survive is flags...the faster the market the more likely the flag...never think a move is over and done when you miss the first break...it could be only half way through...same in reverse on downside. And as usual it was telling us something although it didn't really look it at that exact moment...to a novice that flag pattern looks bearish, lower lows and highs...Yipes ! But bearish = bullish pattern and bullish = bearish - sometimes. This is why 80% of traders lose. Fairly obviously if bullish looking actually meant bullish we would all be billionaires. It doesn't though. We buy exactly when the novice is selling, very often. A sad fact of trading life.
Can raise stop now to just under 11100 for 1110 points profit if hit before the upside target at 11600
That flag is worth 500 points now since the break above the upper parallel...so you didn't FOMO completely by missing that first break, did you? Patience. The chance might come and might not. If not there is another one tomorrow or in an hour or 2. It's always worth checking the chart in the 5 to 15 minutes after a big up or down move - it could have your next trade set-up right there. Keep checking. Nothing is over until it's really over and the move completes.
You can live well off just one flag per week. There are hundreds of them occurring every day, and the faster a market the more likely a flag. Fo rtghis reason the prefect place to hunt for them is on a Bitcoin chart. Happy hunting.
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Now shaping into its familiar parallels. Can keep runing this to target at 11600 and run a trailing stop under the lower parallel (in head, preferably) - day traders are already playing off the upper line and buying back off the lower. The game changes again back to near term negative once the lower parallel is lost (not a little spike, lost) - can close out then or as it rallies back to the under-side of the line it has just lost...day traders can short again then but not until but only look for 400 to 500 points unless this screeches higher to the target at 11600-11700 without much consolidation on the way - then the short might be worth holding for longer...how does it look if it gets there to plan? Follow the chart...Заметка
Muppet Alert (getting late now)Just sent out an update without realising that the target at 11600 has already been hit.
Hope you were a little more up to speed with this than me...if so that's 1600 points in 3 hours flat. Maybe you even boughtback at the 11109 support ....if so maybe run a stop right under it as it looks like it can rip back one more time and can rinse back to 10792 too
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So the atarget was achived overnight and 16000 points profit banked. We also took a further 1250 or so ponts earlier in th eday both on shorts and longs but they were difficult too, some of them. But am hoping you got on this move even if others were missed earlier. So that Reverse head and shoulders was 'good'. Now we have another even bigger one lining itself up here...aa break above 11650 will trigger a 3041 point move up to 114691 minimum upside target - stops 200 below the break level for nowЗаметка
Erm that was a little OTT there...1600 points profit - sorry about that gross exaggeration - sorry for mad spelling tooЗаметка
A good strong break so far...but can still revisit the neck line one more time yet - doesn't have to but it can very often. If day trading can use Speed lines/exits - otherwise if not long already will look to buy again if we see a retest of the neck-line laterЗаметка
Was in such a hurry to get that RHS break out live on Tv before it happened that it was full of typos - and we all know that just 60 seconds saved on a comment going live is often the difference of 200 points or more on Bitcoin prices. Calmer now. So for clarity's sake: the break above 11650 should create a minimum upside target of 3041 points added to the break level = 14691 minimum upside target as a result.(and not at 114691, some typo that one) Apologies.
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Retest of the neckline underway as US joins the market...need them to see the RHS now and back it....if so you can too if not already long from the original break or from this retest of the neckline we are seeing now...stops under the neck-line by 150 points or more for now... target 14691Заметка
Bitcoin UpdateVolume spike in London ..right off the neckline of the RHS on Coinbase...although it's struggled overnight...no support or buying interest from far East still there is still some interest in Europe this morning - but this market is still difficult with no trend emerging yet to hang on to...on the plus side it didn't completely fall away overnight, it drifted in a continuation pattern - so it's not that bearish is it? But on the upside it's also in a struggle to break higher above the upper parallel whilst holding up off support line at 11660-11600 - cannot turn even near term bearish unless 11600 gives way - and cannot get long again until 11830 is broken above with stops under 11600 if we see it....so near term neutral unless 11600 gives way and even then only could short for 250 points or so back to the newly emerging dynamic and fixed support junction at 11350 . No great pattern to fix on as yet apart from the RHS which is still not completely dead and buried yet - no similar pattern on Bitstamp which is the fly in the ointment here...Bitfinex RHS is a little better developed but this one on Coinbase is pretty clear - so the jury is still out - it could be real still but waiting/delaying.
So long story short this is neutral to mildly bearish in super nearterm - little spike from the top on 15 minute chart - but not super bearish - but to stay that way it will have to hold up off the lower rising dynamic which is now holding up this rally from the lows. If that was to fail today Bitcoin is likely to start falling a way again. But so far this is standing up quite well ....
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Bitcoin Update CoinbaseIt's slow but steady...price action is quite positive though with Bitcoin making a pin off the support line at 11650 and now climbing above the upper parallel of the consolidtaion zone below it now once more...but it needs to find buyers now to push above 11850 (out on the break level by 14 or so points) ...once it does it should start to gain some upside traction - but until then it's ranging between 11650-11600 support (can buy here with stops under 11600) and resistance at 11836-11850 - if long already long at 11840 can run a stop just under break even as it can still come back to 11650 again if it doesn't find more buyers right here, very soon now
And just finishing this as more buyers arrive when it was needed.
So we can run this long with the stop around breakeven for now.
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