40K is highly likely

6 янв. 2022 г.

Morning folks,

Now you understand our doubt on taking any long position on BTC by far. Despite our H&S setup has tried to show upward action with some bounce and was with relatively low risk, BTC once again shows its dependence on interest rate performance. The recent fed minutes release just has crushed it once again. We really hope that BTC will be able to avoid serious bearish consequences, but now situation is becoming more tricky.

Anyway, as we suggest that 10-year yields should rise at least to 1.8% area, it makes very probable BTC drop to 1.27 extension of 40K area. Drop to the next 35.5-36K target is also probable but to say it definitely we need to see the performance to 40K target first. If it becomes the same way as yesterday, then yes, BTC follows to 36K as well.

That's being said, now we do not consider taking any new long positions. Besides, we do not have any patterns and other technical reasons to do it by far. Now BTC price shape accurately repeats the shape of consolidation on daily chart after the May collapse. Let's hope that this duplication continues and BTC keeps chances on the reversal from current levels.