BTCUSD. Rise like a year ago or further decrease?

17 сент. 2018 г.

At the 1-day chart the Descending triangle which was formed up from the previous triangle which ended in April. Technical analysis of the chart suggests a positive scenario for BTC price upward movement. Nevertheless indicators are still very bearish: Momentum and MACD suggest to sell BTC now, EMA (20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55) are negative and the conclusion is to sell BTC, even SMA and HMA are negative. Although Stoch has just left the oversold zone. Price oscillator revealed no divergence as Higher lows patter was broken. SkyRock Signals team does not trust in the current indicators status. the reason is that we observe fall of the momentum while there is a multiple progression of the triangles.Further price movement is highly dependent on the expected breakout on the 4th of October, location is drawn at the chart.

From the ATH (All Time High) on 17th of December, BTC formed numerous descending triangles and lower highs + lower lows. They are market with numbers from 1 to 5 at the chart. Which is a very bearish mood indicator. We can see that something has changed and 4 & 5 lows are higher than other lows in the channel. Fluctuations are narrower and narrower. Many can claim it is a sign of reversal, however this can be a sign upcoming sudden sharp decrease.

Current status: negative-neutral


Fundamental analysis starts from investigation of market players mood. Bulls claim and ensure people that Crypto market has reached its bottom and BTC has a very strong support at the current level of $6 400. Taking into account historical price movements and results of the current Technical analysis our trading team thinks it is very vague and doubtful. Descending triangles are Bearish continuous patterns. The only chance of the positive movement is upward breakout in the Short term which we mentioned before. Otherwise there can be a sharp downward movement which will crash the market again and we can see $5 000 - $5 500 levels. We highly recommend to carefully watch BTC chart before taking investment decisions.

Mass adoption that we expected this year failed. There is clear forecast about when it can happen. Practically after such a hype about cryptos and mass adoption failure in this conditions we can see that the BTC blockchain technology is far from the society demands. Adoption can happen in case of social development which is expected in the very Long Term and in case of technology development itself which will make it easier to integrate it to the worlds economy. Crypto are plagued by fraud, uncertainty, extreme speculation that is why we observe institutional rejection. However we see that the idea of cryptos is still interesting for majority as by 2018, it has been reported that The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering the idea of creating a Bitcoin-ETF. A Bitcoin-ETF would be an investment tool using Bitcoin as the main asset. The main purpose of it would be to facilitate the investing process into cryptocurrency and make it more attractive for the community.



Conclusion: There is a wide negative background for Technical and Fundamental sides of BTC analysis. We can see further decrease and consolidation around $5 000 - $5 500 level. This will open the opportunity to play short and earn a good profit as for alts so for BTC.
However, there is a small chance that Bulls will force the price to breakout till the 4th of October and we will see fractal pattern completion, so BTC and the whole crypto will rise as they do in autumn and winter. You can see that the side of the second triangle intersects with the parallel projection of the major support trend line. So, there is a small possibility that BTC can find support there and forecasted breakout will happen. Nevertheless as it was mentioned before such situation is very doubtful as Bulls power and volume are low.

Technical and Fundamental analyses were made specially for our partner Lifehack Channel.

Sincerely,
SkyRock Signals team

21 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

The price accurately follows our analysis. BTC is 6690 now and it seems like bulls are going to have serious fight with bears. However before we take any long term investment decisions we should wait till the potential breakout around 4th of October

27 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

The price heads to the very important date. According to the chart update it heads right to the drawn intersection. We can observe high volatility of ALTs now and very few coins are tradable now.

BTC price is $6 496 now, this level seems to be stable. The price made multiple bounces from the new local support and the most important thing that it makes higher highs and higher lows. This can play a major role at the 4th of October

Stay tuned

3 окт. 2018 г.

Сделка активна

Updating the chart we see 3 very important moments:

1. The price moves lower than the parallel projection of the major support trend line. This is a bad sign as the probability of the expected breakout around 4th of October significantly decreases.

2. The price holds at the upper edge of the major Triangle which is a positive sign taking into account MACD and Stoch RSI indicators status.

3. The price formed a local uptrend support line and continuously bounces from it that is why we see very stable exchange rate of BTC this months. Moreover the price crosses the intersection of projections at the chart but still is situated under Ichimoku clouds zone. These controversial signs bring a lot of uncertainty to the further analysis


Conclusion:
There is a 1 positive and 1 negative factor + 1 neutral. It all depends on the 4th of October day candle close price. If we see it above $6 730 then the market will provide us a great opportunity with a total bull run. The probability of this scenario is 20%
However, it is the most likely that BTC will drop to the next support level around $5 900 - $6 100. Bulls power weakens and volume decreases. Bulls confidence was enough to hold at $6 500 level however they didn't manage to reverse the trend in this attempt.

Overall it is a nice that we had so stable month it seems that we are very close to the reversal. Just need to gain more power and volume for the next time.

Currently we plan to open many short deals and earn profit via scalping and bounce trades

Stay tuned

4 окт. 2018 г.

Заметка

The price didn't managed to breakout today. However it didn't dumped too and saved the lateral trend with small higher lows and highs. If the situation remains the same we will have natural breakout around 9th of October from the Major triangle and such situation is even better than the impulsive breakout which was expected today.

Currently the chart looks good and technical indicators enhance the possibility of the positive scenario: MACD, EMA (10, 20, 30), WMA and HMA are bullish.