Bitcoin - Another Comparison to the 2013/2014 Price Cycle

25 июн. 2018 г.

Hello and thank you for taking the time to check out my charts. Once again I am taking a look at the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle to see if I can gain some insight into how this current cycle may play out in the future. I have said this many times but it is worth repeating, the current boom and correction cycle we are going through is nothing new for Bitcoin it has been through them before and will undoubtedly see more in the future. Those calling for the death of Bitcoin are nothing new either, people have been saying Bitcoin is dead for years! So looking at the two price cycles I see some similarities, I realize that analyzing charts is somewhat subjective so others may look at the same two charts and see something completely different. Other than the fact that both price cycles peaked in December, I also see some similarities in the percentage drops to each low and also in the time distance between lows #1 and #2.

Looking at the 2013/2014 chart you can see that from low #1 to low #2 is just over 2 months. When looking at the 2018 chart you can see that from low #1 to low #2 is just under 2 months. I am sure that this probably doesn't mean anything but I found it interesting. I also found interesting the similarities between the percentage drops. The percentage drop for the #1 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 67.5% 2018 - 69.8%. The percentage drop for the #2 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 65.9% 2018 - 67.7%. The percentage drop for the #3 low on each chart was as follows, 2014 - 71% 2018 - 71% (but still forming). The percentage drop for the #4 low on the 2014 chart is 76.6%, so far there is not a #4 low on the 2018 chart. The percentage drop for the #5 bottom low on the 2014 chart is 85.8%. So far BTC has not bottom yet so we do not know what the ultimate bottom percentage drop will be.

I took the liberty to draw on the 2018 chart one possible scenario for the price of BTC into early next year. Obviously I have no way of knowing what BTC will do in the future but I do feel it still has a way to go before an ultimate bottom and also that there will be a months long consolidation period leading up to the next bull market.

So for now all we can do is watch and be ready to load up before the next ride higher.
Until the next chart, Take care!
BigskyCrypto
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