The market fell further as we expected last week. During the economic data window, the market began to price in only one interest rate cut this year. This is not just for crypto market, but for all financial markets. This is likely to last until early July, before bulls come back and bring enthusiasm again. During this period, the PCE released this Friday will bring about a small rebound.
In addition, multiple BTC ETFs have experienced net outflows for several consecutive days, which is also a microcosm of the US market sentiment. After some asset management companies submitted S-1 documents for the ETH ETF, the market expected that the ETH ETF would be officially listed in early July, which would also bring about a small-level rebound.
Regardless, we are on the way to a rate cut, and the long-term trend for all types of financial assets must be upward.
Over the past seven days, BTC has fallen continuously, pulling back below the given support level, but there has been no significant increase in trading volume. After BTC approached a low, the MBF indicator once again showed obvious bottom-buying sentiment. As shown in the chart, the last time the MBF indicator prompted bottom-buying sentiment was in early May, and then BTC rose to ATH again. On the WTA indicator, there have been no obvious blue columns representing whales over the past week. The ME indicator continues to maintain a bullish trend, but the wavy area further narrows.
To sum up, we believe that BTC may rebound after approaching the low of the range. We maintain the original resistance level 74000 and temporarily lower the support level to 58000.
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