БиткоинДлинная
BTC careful buying opportunity?
It is difficult to predict the future and I am not trying to. But statistically I can see some signs that have proven to be good buy opportunities in the past - at least for long-term holding.
With the recent negative outlook for the global industry, exploding inflation, ever increasing interest-rates with no easing in sight and an overall picture of a looming several years-long recession, it is not easy to appear bullish, yet we must not forget that these were the times in the past when equities (and so far Bitcoin too) have created the highest gains in the following few years.
This time might be different of course so all my current idea may prove to be a false hope but anyways, let's see it:
1. even non-crypto media is writing about the end times for crypto (just like they used to write about the exploseive strength of cryptos, especially the metaverse and gaming almost a year ago). This has often been a good sentimental sign that most of the selling has taken place.
2. a historically significant past resistance has been retested: the 2018 Jan (then) All-Time-High. These ATH levels tend to be retested before the price goes to new ATH's. Now it has finally happend.
3. In the past, whenever hitting significant resistance levels was accompanied by significantly larger-than-recent-average volume, a bottom was either in or very close in terms of price level - though it sometimes took months for the price to lift off - one could argue that reently there was a double volume-pike and price still continued lower - I think that was because of point 2: retesting the past resistance. As that was only a one-timeATH in2018 and not an otherwise strong support/resistance, I can still see a bearish case for the proce to retest a true S/R level which has held back price on several occasions over a long accumulation period between 10.5k and 12.5k from March 2018 to October 2020 (2.5 years!). That is an area where I am ready to deploy even more capital than at today's price level.
Timing the market is frequently called an unwise strategy - at least in equities market. Whether you do lump-sum invetsing or DCA'ing I think it is a good time to buy an S&P or world-TOP-stocks index fund or ETF index fund or even some well-diversified REIT or REIT ETF.
BUT BTC still has to prove its intrinsic value (it does not create a real cashflow - at least in my experience and price is mainly moved by speculation on future appreciation). I am happy to debate that but crypto is generally still in its infancy, with 99% of the projects in the space being either "nice tries" or outright scams. Crypto assets still need to prove that they have anunreplacable role in the real economy. Very-very-very few prove it indeed but still this does not mean that any crypto is the future Google or Amazon if compared to the dotcom period.
Stay safe out there.
With the recent negative outlook for the global industry, exploding inflation, ever increasing interest-rates with no easing in sight and an overall picture of a looming several years-long recession, it is not easy to appear bullish, yet we must not forget that these were the times in the past when equities (and so far Bitcoin too) have created the highest gains in the following few years.
This time might be different of course so all my current idea may prove to be a false hope but anyways, let's see it:
1. even non-crypto media is writing about the end times for crypto (just like they used to write about the exploseive strength of cryptos, especially the metaverse and gaming almost a year ago). This has often been a good sentimental sign that most of the selling has taken place.
2. a historically significant past resistance has been retested: the 2018 Jan (then) All-Time-High. These ATH levels tend to be retested before the price goes to new ATH's. Now it has finally happend.
3. In the past, whenever hitting significant resistance levels was accompanied by significantly larger-than-recent-average volume, a bottom was either in or very close in terms of price level - though it sometimes took months for the price to lift off - one could argue that reently there was a double volume-pike and price still continued lower - I think that was because of point 2: retesting the past resistance. As that was only a one-timeATH in2018 and not an otherwise strong support/resistance, I can still see a bearish case for the proce to retest a true S/R level which has held back price on several occasions over a long accumulation period between 10.5k and 12.5k from March 2018 to October 2020 (2.5 years!). That is an area where I am ready to deploy even more capital than at today's price level.
Timing the market is frequently called an unwise strategy - at least in equities market. Whether you do lump-sum invetsing or DCA'ing I think it is a good time to buy an S&P or world-TOP-stocks index fund or ETF index fund or even some well-diversified REIT or REIT ETF.
BUT BTC still has to prove its intrinsic value (it does not create a real cashflow - at least in my experience and price is mainly moved by speculation on future appreciation). I am happy to debate that but crypto is generally still in its infancy, with 99% of the projects in the space being either "nice tries" or outright scams. Crypto assets still need to prove that they have anunreplacable role in the real economy. Very-very-very few prove it indeed but still this does not mean that any crypto is the future Google or Amazon if compared to the dotcom period.
Stay safe out there.
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