Hello everyone,
Today is the beginning of the new fiscal quarter, so as usual that means Q3 outlook is here.
I already know that with this one, I will most likely not make any new friends, but things have to be said even if the majority may be against "the Idea".
So first, I would point out that my Base Case from Q2 is still relevant in my opinion : " My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time comes - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found" "
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Secondly- Yes, my outlook is Based on Macroeconomy, since I am of the opinion that the Economy and decisions of Central Banks are closely correlated to the charts and prices on them.
With that said, I am going to present a few charts which may bring some clarity to what I am expecting to happen in the next 3 months and Why I am NOT over-optimistic.
Before I start posting these screens, I would like to say, that I believe we are in incredibly tough times to call shorts where price will go since we are in kind of unprecedented times - both chart-wise and macroeconomy-wise kinda too.
So Why I am still more Bearish?
These are just a few examples of Why I am still more bearish..
I am sure that I could add some more, but at this point my "reasons Why" should be clear to everyone and if not, I would suggest you read the Q1 & Q2 outlook too.
Also, I would like to mention that this week we will get a lot of economic data which may provide a clearer view of what is coming next month/quarter. Anyway, I decided to do this TODAY so I am working with what we have "RIGHT NOW". If my opinion changes in the future based on these data I will let you know.
As well, to not be viewed as "perma BEAR", I want to say, that I see possibility that BITCOIN keep going Higher in Q3 and reach new ATHs ( all economic data comes "bullish" and FED still not decided to cut rates), BUT it is not my Base Case for now.
My Base Case as I said - staying the same as was in Q2, at least for now!
Until next time good luck to everyone.
Joe
________________________________________________________________________________
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
Today is the beginning of the new fiscal quarter, so as usual that means Q3 outlook is here.
I already know that with this one, I will most likely not make any new friends, but things have to be said even if the majority may be against "the Idea".
So first, I would point out that my Base Case from Q2 is still relevant in my opinion : " My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
"6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time comes - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found" "
______________________________________________________________________________
Secondly- Yes, my outlook is Based on Macroeconomy, since I am of the opinion that the Economy and decisions of Central Banks are closely correlated to the charts and prices on them.
With that said, I am going to present a few charts which may bring some clarity to what I am expecting to happen in the next 3 months and Why I am NOT over-optimistic.
Before I start posting these screens, I would like to say, that I believe we are in incredibly tough times to call shorts where price will go since we are in kind of unprecedented times - both chart-wise and macroeconomy-wise kinda too.
So Why I am still more Bearish?
These are just a few examples of Why I am still more bearish..
I am sure that I could add some more, but at this point my "reasons Why" should be clear to everyone and if not, I would suggest you read the Q1 & Q2 outlook too.
Also, I would like to mention that this week we will get a lot of economic data which may provide a clearer view of what is coming next month/quarter. Anyway, I decided to do this TODAY so I am working with what we have "RIGHT NOW". If my opinion changes in the future based on these data I will let you know.
As well, to not be viewed as "perma BEAR", I want to say, that I see possibility that BITCOIN keep going Higher in Q3 and reach new ATHs ( all economic data comes "bullish" and FED still not decided to cut rates), BUT it is not my Base Case for now.
My Base Case as I said - staying the same as was in Q2, at least for now!
Until next time good luck to everyone.
Joe
________________________________________________________________________________
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
