The triangle broke up; not as much as would have been expected

4 мая 2018 г.

As usual, the initial symmetrical triangle broke down, with a bear trap, suggesting that the ABC retracement would still happen; then the patterns changed to a larger symmetrical triangle that broke up as it should have (simmetrical triangles are usually regarded as consolidation phase/continuation patterns).
The break up consisted in a 12345 minor impulse wave, which was then stopped by the double top at $9700-$9800 resistance zone.
As a remark, the volume was lower than expected and the 5th wave was truncated, and in my opinion we have now a minor ABC correction. If the next impulse wave will not be able to cross the $9800 level with high volume, we are less bullish than we might think; a bear reversal could happen.

4 мая 2018 г.

Заметка

As a remark, the maxima from April 24-25 and these from May 4 and their corresponding RSI maximas are making a subtle bearish divergence. So take care!
May the 4th be with you! :D

4 мая 2018 г.

Заметка

We might go sideways for a while, but it also seems we are building a descending triangle targeting $9400; that would complete the minor wave c. The bearish MACD cross also suggests that. Wave c would need 3 more subwaves tho.
Also noteworthy that even if bullish volume is not high, bulls don't give up easily, so even if the triangle completes, we might have high volatility after.
We should also note the large volume of longs building up recently on BTCUSDLONGS chart. Some people are too trustful IMO. If we break down and that volume of longs get liquidated by stop losses, that might trigger an avalanche FOMO down. Another reason to wait before going long.

5 мая 2018 г.

Заметка

Bulls were fighting a little more; therefore we are now actually building either a pennant (which is very bullish) or an ascending wedge (which is bearish). There are multiple resistances in the $9800 area so confirmation must wait. If it breaks up with volume, there's a good opportunity to go long; but take care of the possible ascending wedge and the bearish divergence!