Currently a whole raft of supports and resistances to be watching on BTC.
Looking at the 4hr, we are sitting in a small possible channel or have bounced off a broadening wedge based on a trendline running from the 6.5k bottom (brown line). A possible new downward trend has formed off the prior three highs (purple line). Additionally we have a strong support turned resistance in the same 88-8900 area (blue line). From the 1 hour we can also see weakening volume and regular divergence on the CMF.
For the bigger picture and on the bearish side, this could still be wave B of the three wave corrective Elliot of the whole recent move from 6.5k to 10k, with the 50% fib being the recent bottom of A. This is supported by a bearish hidden divergence noted on the RSI, and the bear flag made by the channel. In addition the recent upward trend can be seen dying off on the ADX. If this possible Elliot plays out, I suspect we'll see a healthy retrace back to the 61.8% at around 78-7900, although 8k may also provide a psychological support.
On the bullish side, there are fewer signs than bearish right now. On the 8 hour the price is coming around the bottom of the cloud hugging it, which from what I have seen means it's gearing up for another go at the kumo resistance. The 4 hour MACD is still looking ok but this can be a very lagging indicator. We also had strong bullish divergence off the two recent lows, and when this has happened in the past has provided momentum to get through the resistances. On the 1 hour the parabolic SAR is still on a buy, while there is a mini-bullish wedge forming.
All up, bearish is in the lead right now for the mid term, (in my humble opinion). However if the bullish signs on the lower timeframes hang round a while and we bounce in this channel for a while, it's possible the bearish signs will iron out, supports will grow in strength and we'll start to see more upward moves.
If you like this and want to see more please give me a follow, come and see me on discord or twitter!
Looking at the 4hr, we are sitting in a small possible channel or have bounced off a broadening wedge based on a trendline running from the 6.5k bottom (brown line). A possible new downward trend has formed off the prior three highs (purple line). Additionally we have a strong support turned resistance in the same 88-8900 area (blue line). From the 1 hour we can also see weakening volume and regular divergence on the CMF.
For the bigger picture and on the bearish side, this could still be wave B of the three wave corrective Elliot of the whole recent move from 6.5k to 10k, with the 50% fib being the recent bottom of A. This is supported by a bearish hidden divergence noted on the RSI, and the bear flag made by the channel. In addition the recent upward trend can be seen dying off on the ADX. If this possible Elliot plays out, I suspect we'll see a healthy retrace back to the 61.8% at around 78-7900, although 8k may also provide a psychological support.
On the bullish side, there are fewer signs than bearish right now. On the 8 hour the price is coming around the bottom of the cloud hugging it, which from what I have seen means it's gearing up for another go at the kumo resistance. The 4 hour MACD is still looking ok but this can be a very lagging indicator. We also had strong bullish divergence off the two recent lows, and when this has happened in the past has provided momentum to get through the resistances. On the 1 hour the parabolic SAR is still on a buy, while there is a mini-bullish wedge forming.
All up, bearish is in the lead right now for the mid term, (in my humble opinion). However if the bullish signs on the lower timeframes hang round a while and we bounce in this channel for a while, it's possible the bearish signs will iron out, supports will grow in strength and we'll start to see more upward moves.
If you like this and want to see more please give me a follow, come and see me on discord or twitter!
Come say hi @elisa_crypto on twitter!
