BITCOIN has entered the Halving Phase and targets 50k.

17 нояб. 2023 г.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy volatility lately due to the ETF development and in times like this, we tend to zoom out into the longer term time-frames such as the 1W to get a better perspective of where we might be at with relation to past Cycles, in an attempt to filter out the short/ medium-term volatility of such news.

** Cycle classification **
On this chart we compare the current to the 2018 - 2021 and 2014 - 2017 Cycles. To get an insightful understanding of time and levels, we have categorized the Phases into Bear (red), 1st Rally (orange), Pre & Post Halving (blue) and Parabolic Rally (green).

Based on that classification, BTC has just entered the Pre & Post Halving phase, with Halving 4 expected to take place in April 2024. During that phase, the price reaches or has already reached (in the case of 2020) the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, while keeping the 0.382 Fibonacci intact as a Support (notable exception of course March 2020 with the COVID crash, which was however an irregularity due to its once in 100 years occurrence). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) also poses as a loose Support.

** Now and new All Time High **
On the current Cycle, the 0.786 Fib is at $50000, so based on our model, either now or 3-4 months after the Halving it should be reached. At the same time, we shouldn't drop below 27000 (0.382 Fibonacci).

Once the 0.786 Fib breaks, BTC should test the 69000 All Time High (ATH) in a matter of weeks, which will be the start of the Parabolic Rally phase. Beyond that, it is a matter of how high the current Cycle can extend to in pricing the next ATH. The 2017 Cycle peaked on the 2.382 Fib extension and the 2021 on the 1.618 Fib extension. That is the Theory of Diminishing returns on every Cycle, as adoption gets greater. Technically it is natural to expect no more than 1.382 Fib, which is a little over $120000. Perhaps the worst case scenario might be 100k but of course much depends on the fundamentals at the time, e.g. how adoption evolves, how much capital will flow in case of an ETF approval etc.

But what do you think? Do you agree that 50k will be reached within our designated Pre & Post Halving phase? Or it is too high too soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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