Bitcoin long swing trade

17 сент. 2018 г.

We can try a swing trade here for Bitcoin, scaling in (several entries to keep the risk low) and using a wide stop loss. So adjust the sizes of the position to the stop loss.
First 25% entry around 6330 and from there wait and see what happens before buying the other 25%. The idea is as you can see in the chart. So want to see the price turn slowly up again before buying the next 25%.

Stop loss around 6080, because below this level (6100/6000) my mid-term bullish view gets in danger.

I still believe, that if we can make a move like this and break the 6500/6600 afterwards, the chances increase for a bigger rally. 6800 will once again be a big level to break. Only when the 7000ish breaks i will start to get more confident for a bullish period. What i am trying to say with this as well, start small. Because goal of the Swing trade is very big, so 100/200 points for the entry won't make a difference!
These kind of trades fail as well of course, but if you do it the right way, only 1 needs to succeed and 20 to 30 can fail and you will still make break even. Because above the 6600ish we will start to increase the position size and only risk the profit by doing that.

I know allot of you fail in this, risk management. Because most try to get the returns we used to have in the first half year of 2018. But that belongs to the past, accept it and move on and try to make the best of what the market is offering now. This swing trade, needs to be treated as a different strategy than the smaller day trades we will try to do in the mean time.

17 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

It's dropping now and selling volume is increasing, if first entry (25%) is in, now it's the moment to wait and see what happens.

17 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

For Bitcoin swing trade, still need to be patiened. Still risk here, had a small bounce just above 6300 which is a start, but at the moment it's nothing more than a potential bear flag. Want to see a move like the blue line on the left first before thinking about increasing the pos.

17 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

As i posted in the TV update, things are not looking good for the bulls, but there is no big dumped as well at the moment. I think the last chance for the bulls could be a potential bullish wedge. If we get another 2 touches of the support and resistance, we can try to trade it. But not any sooner, the pattern is not there so don't get ahead of things.

18 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

What you will read here below, is something i wrote yesterday but did not post because of several reasons. Most important was being me being too passive. Let this be a lesson for all of us, this shows that planning ahead is very important when making (swing) trades. That way you can take out all the noise and emotions of the market of a certain moment. Getting trapped in fake bull of bear traps is what markets love to do, this way one can prevent themselves from getting sucked in. Still things can go wrong, but he thing is, when you know you take the right steps because of the right reasons, it's okay to be wrong sometimes and make losses. One should not be afraid of making losses. When you are afraid, it always comes down to the position size, meaning it's too big.




Still not much has changed, but the price has become stable again. For the ones who understand risk management, meaning not jumping in too big. Could try to get in with the second 25% of the long trade position if price 6260 at Bitfinex. This would mean entry around 6330 and 6260, brings average of 6295. With a stop loss at around 6080 it will be a 215 point loss. Make sure this potential loss is around 1% of your balance. Because this is a swing trade it's okay that it is a bit bigger than 1%.

I have seen too many people make huge mistakes in position sizes, don't forget that if this swing trade works out, 100/200 points will be absolutely nothing!! So don't try to catch the perfect entry price with 100% of the position. It's just a trade, nothing more nothing less. If it works out it's great, if not it's just a loss. Don't let it become a assassination of your balance.

18 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

For the ones who have not followed the plan and still only have 25% left, can look to buy the next 25% around 6340/6300. So when having 50% total, it should still not hurt too much when the stop at 6080 gets triggered.

If it does hurt too much, than you can use 2 stops, 1 between 6195/6250 and one at 6080ish.

For the ones ready to buy the third part i would still wait a bit, unless you have an average entry price of 6300 or lower. If that's the case, you can buy here, but then i would use 2 stops, one around 6230 and the original one around 6080.

A stop just below 6200 is also not a bad decision, since i assume that the low we made yesterday should already be the low for this swing trade.

18 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

For the ones who waited patiently and only have 50% of the swing trade position in now, we have a clear level now to get in the third part if we break that 6380ish high of today. After doing that, i would move the 2 stops for 50% to around 6285 and 50% to around 6185. At least something like this so the total loss stays the same as the very first position we had with a 250 point stop.

We will try to buy the last 25% 6460 (slightly change of plans). Then we will have 100% of our swing trade position. When we start to move towards the 6550/6600 resistance, when we start to see this resistance will break, we can start to increase the position size to whatever you feel comfortable with. That can be 25% but also 100%, whatever you feel comfortable with, but remember to adjust the stoploss!



A chart i posted today, shows again that planning ahead gives you so much more peace of mind while trading. Doesn't always work out like this of course, but that's okay. But you will get better in the long term when you start to learn to do it like this.

19 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

Still not allot has changed, but it has become clear again that the bears have completely taken over so far. They are just pushing the price down, so no use fighting it!
Assuming your in with 50% of the swing trade long, i think it's best to take the safe path and move the stops up. I would do half around 6270ish and half around 6195.
Maybe i will even turn short if we break the 6200

19 сент. 2018 г.

Заметка

Looked like it would make a dump there, but things have slowed down now. Let me tell you something about and H&S like this one. They are very unreliable, if the bulls can prevent it from even getting close to the neckline again, we usually see a big counter move to the other side. But that means it really has to stay above 6230/50.
Open interest keeps increasing on Bitmex, so whales are up to something here, but don't know yet which side.

The fact that we did not break the 6380 is a bearish sign, no doubt about that. If that level breaks, IMO things will probably change again in favor of the bulls. 6450 break would be another confirmation. Obviously, the 6550/6600 is the level for the coming week.