As BTC consolidates under $45k in this upward movement, I am drawn to notice the pending cross of the daily 100MA below the 200MA, placing all major MAs below the 200MA, reminiscent of the 2018 Bear market. Indeed, as seen in the chart on the right, in 2018 the 200MA become a line of resistance until after capitulation when the cyclical low was reached and price began its upward climb.
To be sure, this is not the only time that the daily MAs have dropped below the 200MA, but it we accept the premise that we have seen the peak of price in this market cycle, then we might anticipate price being contained by the 200MA until a final capitulation low, which I suggest should occur around early September, 2022. Projecting the price action forward, we can then image a correction from the $49k high, with price subsequently bouncing from a higher-low to a lower-high, perhaps with some consolidation, before capitulating into a bear market bottom.
Of course, anything could happen, but if you have followed my discussion of Bitcoin currently being in a cyclical Bear Market, and especially if we see price turn down again as we roll into March, then you might recognise the applicability of this bearish MA story line.
What do you think? Is a bear market playing out or will price continue to rally to the moon on the sudden global renunciation of Covid based economic suppression policies, the CCP announcing record ticket sales to its Propaganda Games, more QE from the FED and ECB, war in the Ukraine, or something else?
To be sure, this is not the only time that the daily MAs have dropped below the 200MA, but it we accept the premise that we have seen the peak of price in this market cycle, then we might anticipate price being contained by the 200MA until a final capitulation low, which I suggest should occur around early September, 2022. Projecting the price action forward, we can then image a correction from the $49k high, with price subsequently bouncing from a higher-low to a lower-high, perhaps with some consolidation, before capitulating into a bear market bottom.
Of course, anything could happen, but if you have followed my discussion of Bitcoin currently being in a cyclical Bear Market, and especially if we see price turn down again as we roll into March, then you might recognise the applicability of this bearish MA story line.
What do you think? Is a bear market playing out or will price continue to rally to the moon on the sudden global renunciation of Covid based economic suppression policies, the CCP announcing record ticket sales to its Propaganda Games, more QE from the FED and ECB, war in the Ukraine, or something else?
