Bitcoin patterns and cycles

23 дек. 2023 г.

Here's a post not many people will like! But as a professional trader of over 23 years now, I can say, one does not stay in the game this long without learning a thing or two.

This year I started my Christmas break a little early wound down and been enjoying some hobbies and movies. Last night I watched the film called Dumb money, it emphasised the retail mindset so much! That convinced me to write this little post.



People confuse being bearish with being anti crypto, anti Bitcoin. This could not be further from the truth. I have been VERY fortunate in terms of Bitcoin and Crypto for that matter. First entering a punt position in 2011. Needless to say, I am still profitable ;-)

So what does get to me, is the little knowledge retail posses. There was a scene in the movie that highlighted just how the big boys win, but it wasn't just this scene where the Fund Manager calls his buddie - the buddie says, "how much you need, never mind the number, I'll do it"

Yet, it wasn't even this that got me to write this post. It was the sheer fact that all the way through - the "dumb money" was searching for a signal, using terms like diamond hands and so on. What clicked for me, was whilst of course - holding my Bitcoin I bought in 2011 would be immense when it tops $250,000 or even 1million. The real question should be - when is enough, enough? It's this that separates us pro's and the dumb money.

Back in 2021 on the run up - I shared this post about the re-accumulation phase.

It was here the first clues to institutional money became apparent.

Then the move from the major high back to 28 was obvious. The move back to the current ATH also the same.



The way back to the bottom - the same.



The issue then was - Personally, I wanted this to be early accumulation. I was wrong!

It was and still is much earlier than I anticipated! (maybe I would have liked) Why, well, I still hold Bitcoin and don't short it. I believe in the future and once it's fully regulated and controlled, there's no stopping it becoming the digital gold standard for sure!

So, where I was wrong - I really wanted the move up to be 30-32k to give a textbook move up for an ST down, collect liquidity and go. We then proceeded to go up without grabbing that extra liquidity. The issue therefor, is a simple one. We need to secure that just like filling a car for a long road trip.

I shared this as a concern in September last year. Whilst secretly praying it wouldn't play out like this. Unfortunately - it's exactly what we did ...



Now I scrap the early stage accumulation in favour for still being negative sentiment.

Yup, we are simply not ready for the power play up. Blackrock WILL NOT be bag carries for retail and that I am certain.

Now, here is the logic.
Summary view


Step one: Take a look at the momentum and volume when moving impulsively.


Then the nested 0-1 move inside the larger up move.


Look at what happened when we really made some headway.


Now, as the tides turned - what did we see?


This was clear as day, we built momentum to the downside as we saw aggressive RED candles.

This might make it easier to spot the difference?


I've shared my concerns on the monthly stochastic.


Which then brings me back to "What I didn't want to happen"


After watching the movie last night, this thing is going to shake out the weak whilst the pro's enjoy the discounts again. Value areas have not changed much for me since the re-accumulation up first major ATH above 60k.

Anyways - just wanted to share this.

Stay safe, enjoy the Holidays! Wish you all a Happy New Year!


Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.