BTC Balancing Act
Once again I'm using BTC-e because I use MetaTrader, and the Bitstamp chart throws me off just a wee bit in regards to the immediate future.
Back in March, when we were still coming off the massive bull surge of last year, we still had bubble tendencies, made apparent by the significant [positive volume] and the significant [price spike] (both notated above). This being a bubble, the volume and price had to be balanced more correctly, as they were going into April. At this point both the [13] and [21] of the Willy became oversold, allowing that powerful line cross in the oversold zone. Also at this point, the negative volume balanced out the positive volume, and the result was the phenomenal price spike and staying power over the next few months.
Still reeling from the bubble, BTC's actual value ever enigmatic, the positive volume and positive price action once again require balance, which occurs in August and September.
Earlier, I posted a chart appealing to the bull side in us, but the strength I really want coming into this may only arise from another wringing of the weak hands. This holds true especially after what many consider to be a dead cat bounce occurring last week. A wringing of the hands could result in a minor flash crash on BTC-e, as the negative volume bar lengthens. This would potentially allow both lines of the Willy to become oversold, and will consequentially allow the all but perfect oversold Willy line cross. This will result in On Balance Volume bouncing off the floor and ascending once more.
I realize this speculation is quite detailed, and risks being complete nonsense because of it's pretense of extreme clarity, but I only include personal exactness for fun. I realize this conflicts with earlier charts in terms of my forecast for the immediate future, but essentially I just want to get across the need for another bear shaking after that "dead cat bounce."
Obviously, this chart does not take into account overall volume balancing, including all the time before March of this year, but there are way too many factors to account for in even attempting to make that information useful. The pattern is consistent enough in today's Bitcoin climate to induce speculation on my part.
Back in March, when we were still coming off the massive bull surge of last year, we still had bubble tendencies, made apparent by the significant [positive volume] and the significant [price spike] (both notated above). This being a bubble, the volume and price had to be balanced more correctly, as they were going into April. At this point both the [13] and [21] of the Willy became oversold, allowing that powerful line cross in the oversold zone. Also at this point, the negative volume balanced out the positive volume, and the result was the phenomenal price spike and staying power over the next few months.
Still reeling from the bubble, BTC's actual value ever enigmatic, the positive volume and positive price action once again require balance, which occurs in August and September.
Earlier, I posted a chart appealing to the bull side in us, but the strength I really want coming into this may only arise from another wringing of the weak hands. This holds true especially after what many consider to be a dead cat bounce occurring last week. A wringing of the hands could result in a minor flash crash on BTC-e, as the negative volume bar lengthens. This would potentially allow both lines of the Willy to become oversold, and will consequentially allow the all but perfect oversold Willy line cross. This will result in On Balance Volume bouncing off the floor and ascending once more.
I realize this speculation is quite detailed, and risks being complete nonsense because of it's pretense of extreme clarity, but I only include personal exactness for fun. I realize this conflicts with earlier charts in terms of my forecast for the immediate future, but essentially I just want to get across the need for another bear shaking after that "dead cat bounce."
Obviously, this chart does not take into account overall volume balancing, including all the time before March of this year, but there are way too many factors to account for in even attempting to make that information useful. The pattern is consistent enough in today's Bitcoin climate to induce speculation on my part.
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