BITCOIN - Bumpy Road Map!

24 янв. 2021 г.

Hello TradingView Family, Bitcoin is overall bearish BUT... Below we will discuss the two possible scenarios for Bitcoin (from a long-term perspective).

As you clearly see, BTC is now overall bearish trading inside the red channel. So as it approaches the upper red trendline and round number 35k, you can look for trend-following (short-term) sell setups on lower timeframes.

But this post is about the long-term perspective, so let's stick to it:

1- Long-Term Scenario 1: REVERSAL
For this scenario, we need BTC to form a new swing high around our upper red trendline, (the closer to the blue support, the better)
That's why I have made two projections (in purple) forming two swing highs, for BTC to test the blue support before reversing. (Preferred scenario)

But we all know that BTC can still invalidate our scenario by breaking above our red trendline now. We don't predict, we react, so in this case, we will update our analysis and act accordingly.

For now, as per the current market condition, we are waiting for a new swing high (or two as mentioned earlier) to form around our upper red trendline to consider it our trigger swing, and then and only then, the reversal setup would be ready and confirmed after a momentum candle close above the last swing high (gray area).

And of course, as price approaches our upper green resistance (40k - 42k) we will be looking for sell setups.

2- Long-Term Scenario 2: CONTINUATION
We know that BTC is overall bearish, however, it is currently approaching a strong support area as shown in blue (28k - 30k), that's why we have our first scenario as the price might reject it. Meanwhile, BTC can dive inside the blue support before going up.

For BTC to trade any lower, it has to break below the blue zone aggressively with many big bearish candles, then and only then, we can consider that our blue support is broken and it would then act as resistance.

In this case, we will be looking for sell setups on the blue zone retest to catch the next impulsive movement downward. (as shown in orange)

And of course, as price approaches our lower red trendline and green support (18k - 20k) we will be looking for buy setups.


Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.

As I always say,
Forex (currencies) Trading is for Yearly Profit
Stock Trading is for Your Own Retirement
Crypto Trading is for Your Kids


Regards

~Rich