BTCUSD: Did BTC bottom at 6k?

19 мая 2018 г.

I suspect the answer is yes...There are two key dates where long term buyers stopped the selloff and turned the market around, both highlighted in this chart. I suspect the smart money has been accumulating positions and will continue to do so, as the market remains sideways. Overall, I think the best way to play this market is to hedge after big rallies, and try to accumulate or hodl spot positions bought between 6k and 8.1k from here onwards. Price might form a new long term uptrend signal over time, in the vicinity of 10k, once enough time passes, but this will be a long and boring wait. Many might capitulate and give up to boredom and sell before the market becomes long term bullish and trendy again next year.

My estimation here is that it is safe to allocate long term funds you want to invest in crypto now, and gradually add if we go below this zone, while trying to short rallies if feasible. I'll hold the majority of funds off exchange, and keep a % of my net worth allocated permanently from here onwards. I had some funds in cash that I will invest, and would reccomend anyone interested in crypto of doing so, but be ready to accept long term volatility in these holdings. A partial allocation at an exchange with margin trading capabilities, or usage of the CME futures would be wise to hedge your holdings after rallies, if such opportunities present themselves. There might also be good ICO opportunities or altcoin trading ideas to benefit from, so, having accounts at multiple exchanges will be useful too. I think something like 80% BTC, 1-10% ICO and 1-20% altcoin trades would be wise from here onwards. You'll have to do your own due diligence with that though, I will mainly cover BTC in this site, since it is the most liquid and fundamentally sound market in crypto...It is practically, THE market, liquidity wise. As far as risk is concerned, you should be able to tolerate 50% drawdowns, while holding, so you can't invest more than willing to lose by half, and please don't sacrifice returns from other markets that might be moving more than BTC is, at any given point. I keep funds in equities and there's always good trades to take. Your p&l will thank you.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

22 мая 2018 г.

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I'm in cash once more, sold my last entry from $8200 at 8320-10.



I will look to reenter when safe.

22 мая 2018 г.

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I went short BTC at 8170 ish. Tight stop...looks like headed to a lower support level first. I'll flip long once it bottoms.

22 мая 2018 г.

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Bears are mauling their way through support here, we may see a rapid selloff if they succeed Two possibilities, either we are still on track for the 3-D timeframe signal, or we bottom when this daily signal's downside is exhausted.

23 мая 2018 г.

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23 мая 2018 г.

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The 3-day timeframe has fired a new downtrend signal from a lower level now, extending the time duration of the downtrend, with downside to 4305.52 being possible I personally doubt we go that low, but I'm short and will wait until I get a bottom signal to cover and go long again.

25 мая 2018 г.

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#BTCUSD forecast update

18 июн. 2018 г.

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I'm long with a partial spot position.



Buyers regained ground here, maybe we retest the weekly resistance again before falling further.

22 июн. 2018 г.

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Looks like downtrend back in control, weekly most likely...will sit in cash till August probably.