BTC/USD:Gox daily fib channel

1 янв. 2014 г.

This better explains the regression trend I saw earlier. To draw the fib channel, start at the high close during the full moon at point a. Continue through c and end on point e where it lines up with support line at $206. Stretch the width to point b at the $1242 high. I notice a lot of statistical correlation with this pattern in predicting highs and lows (yellow ellipses) during the bubble retrace.

We are completing what looks to me like a bearish upward wedge as we approach another new moon high at the question mark, which lines up trend-wise, parallel with points a, b, c and d. Indicators look very much like what happened during the same time period after April's high. Like in April, the next high should occur in the triangle, during the new moon; however, fib predicts a possible insane run-up to point f before retrace, depending on rumor. Can it break through the ellipse and out of the triangle on high volume? This would put it back up in the trend range from point a, lining up with the support line from the two downward teeth. From that upper vantage point, it could easily test new highs, but with the volume we have been getting the past two weeks, I estimate long odds of that at 100:1 against...

Volume on Mtgox and BTCChina continues to be very low and stochastic is entering a high range. A handful of other exchanges like Huboi have been accused of faking volume, probably by churn buying from themselves. Point e seems like a possible target, with several convenient stops along the way. Well, now that I look at it some more, 620 looks better short-term with a remote chance of testing April's high (former resist becomes support around 270) on the following full moon.