Bitcoin BTC possible scenarios - Fib Circles updated

29 окт. 2018 г.

Preface: I know some may not understand where do those circles come from... But if you look at my previous works they tend be accurate - keep reading. This is still a theory in the making 'tho.
I'll start with "classical" theory first, then I'll be talking about my own method.
If you like this analysis make sure to "like" - it helps :)

"Classic view":
i) 6350 support has been broken. If 6150-6200$ does not hold, then 6000$ should be a very strong support. (my other theory is that is can touch 5850 if it reaches 6000$).

ii) MACD is diverging like crazy towards the bottom. That is never a good sign
iii) 2.27% ) RSI is in BEAR territory with resistance levels at 36-40. Above this level we might see a stabilisation of the price.
iv) StochRSI is oversold. BUT, coupled with MACD + RSI bear signs, this is not a good sign.
v) ALL Moving Average lines are going dowwards with the continuous rejection of the MA200(3h) line at 6400$.

So yeah, all signs point to "down" ...
But how far down? When "moon" ?
Well, read on for my 2nd theory.


Basically, the theory is like this - We have 3 circles:
1) RED ONE that attracts the price upwards and has been rejected continuously in the past month as you can see on the bubble charts.
RED Circles are resistance if the price is moving upwards and support if the price is going down.

2) YELLOW ONE is the one that might move sideways and is short term.
Yellow is here to better see the movements between the two major circles.
It could also predict when a major move might happen, because of it's horizontal position that gives something like a "time resistance" on the X axis.

3) BLUE ONE is the one the pulls the price down at the moment - but also offers STRONG support at 5850-6000 area together with the RED one.
BLUE again gives support/resistance levels - but on different time frames than the RED circle.

Why I like this theory is because it allows me to see A LOT of possibilities AT ONCE and help me make a choice for that is suitable for me in the time frame that I'm trading.
The Green area is what I like to call "uncertainty area". Depending on the exit zone of the asset, new possibilities arise - hence the Purple drawn sticks.

For example at the moment of this publication I'm expecting a 6150$/6000$/5850$ touchdown. So I'm going to have orders at those levels (of course, the bulk of the orders being at 5850$ for maximum profit and lowest risk).
Afterwards, I shall wait and see if the support lines hold. If not - 5500$ is the worst possibility in the nearby future. BUT it has *a lot* of support until then. So I'm taking my chances.

And that's about it for today.
If you like this analysis make sure to "like" - it helps :)