BITCOIN - Again The Fibonacci??

2 апр. 2019 г.

The BTC price got a very nice PUMP upwards and the Daily range hasn't been so high since 12. April 2018 - currently the Daily range is almost $1,000!!

At the moment there is almost impossible to make any bigger assumption that where the price can land because the pump just happened. We catch that move nicely and to make other precise decisions then we need to collect more data to make a good technical analysis but still, we can discover some areas and behaviors from the past.

First of all the strong area which is around $5,000:
It has worked first time as a resistance level in September 2017 but the area is strong because of the candles breakthroughs:

As you see on the image above there are only two candles managed to crack this level and those breaks have ended up with super-strong candles. Also, we can count this level as a direction indicator. If it has managed to break through from $5,000 then it has made pretty big moves to the break direction. Currently, we have got a rejection from this level and I can assume that this level holds us for a while because the market has to "breath" some time to collect another buying power which will guide us through the $5,000. The Daily range is too high already so, I can say that this was the current mid-term high but still remarkable run from bulls!

The major reason why I think this could be an area where we get a rejection is the BTC price behavior from the past:

The Fibonacci Power

Half a year ago there were multiple idea posts where they all mentioned about the certain pattern on the crypto market and this certain "pattern"/behavior was the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio 62%.
Three times the price got a rejection almost perfectly from Fib 62%. It occurred on 5. May 2018, 25. July 2018 and 4. September 2018 and NOW it comes again into the discussion ring. As said before, the $5,000 level has been historically very strong and now it becomes even stronger if we add the behavior into this area. So, definitely watch out for that, do not FOMO, do not get too excited. Ok, excited you have to be, come on this was awesome move but not too excited ;)

The third obstacle which should start to work as resistance is the Daily 200EMA. Currently, the EMA200 is around $4,607 and let's see where today's candle may get a close! Above of it would be nice but still, can't make any bigger assumption after that!

SUMMARY: Those were my quick thoughts and analysis after the current pump. Please do not FOMO, let the move settle down, let's collect more data from the current levels!
Some small confirmation areas:
A daily candle close below EMA or even below $4,500 could be definitely a bearish view.
A daily candle above 200EMA would be just a small bullish sign, nothing remarkable but a big bullish sign would be a candle close above $5,000 (just in case this $5,000 level but this is unlikely)

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Have a nice day,
Best regards!


*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell, it is used for educational purposes only!

Previous analysis:

3 апр. 2019 г.

Заметка

The yesterday's candle got a close above the 200EMA, which was a slight continuation sign, and actually, it got a close pretty close to the $5,000 level and it leaves us a tiny wick between candle high and close. Tiny wicks are also a slight continuation sign but still, can't predict precisely do it can go higher. Also, we have a bit sloppy channel and the price managed to break above of it - more and more continuation signs. Short-squeeze have been already pretty massive but it can easily be more massive if we consider those signs.
The mentioned $5,000 level is very strong and it plays a significant role in the mid-term price structure, so, if it manages to break above of it then there can be easily another $500+ pump because we have seen historically that 5k breakthroughs have occurred with long and powerful candles.
The 4H candle close above the 5k has happened already, it means that they attempt to go higher and higher equals with more FOMO'ers who think that we are heading into ATH again - ridicules but that's how the FOMO works.
Basically, nothing confirmed, the Daily candle leaves us surprisingly multiple continuation signs but we can't forget that strong resistance above the current price and if the strong resistance is just above the price we can't trade it right now. If You are not in the market and you want to enter into the long position then it is very risky and to enter into the short position there are not so many signs which will indicate that the price may come down. So, leave it!

3 апр. 2019 г.

Заметка

Prepare for a breakout from the ascending triangle, a bit slippy but still readable. Looks like the pressure is still upwards to the $5,400-500 but next bigger confirmations may come after the breakout from the mentioned triangle - to both sides. At least we have some data from this level, obviously, it is too short data but we have to grab from somewhere:

4 апр. 2019 г.

Заметка

New idea post - About Fractal, 'Clean Areas', Reversal Signs:

Have a nice day!