2024-08-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Above is my medium-long term outlook was has not changed for many many months. 50000 was hit and a pullback expected. If you think my 50000 target was moronic when we were at 70000, I still do not care at all what you think about my 40000 target at 56000.
4h 20ema seems resistance again and bears trying to keep it below. It currently runs at 57100, which means I expect a trade back down to retest 50000. Bears could once again not get a decent daily close below 52000 for now, so the bull gap has gotten smaller but is still valid. The next bull gap is from 47000 - 50600 and that will be closed over the next weeks.
current market cycle: bear trend - leg 2 is from 70015 down to 49111. Measured move down would be 32000 and that’s almost exactly the breakout retest of the 2023-07 high
key levels: 491000 - 58000
bull case: Bulls first target is a 1h candle close above 57000 because the last close above the 4h 20ema was a week ago. If they could manage that, their next target is the bear trend line test around 59000. For now they are inside a weak bear flag with much two sided trading.
Invalidation is below 49000.
bear case: Only viable question for now is when most bears want a retest of the lows again. That is a 8000 point trade and I’d like to get some of dat. My uber strong bear case would take a hit if bulls get above 59000 but as of now I see it as very low probability. Bears also see this bear flag already had 4 pushes up and is technically ready to break down any moment. Many of the recent sell offs happened outside of EU or US trading hours, so I expect the same.
Invalidation is above 59000.
short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Nah, not going there today.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
comment: Above is my medium-long term outlook was has not changed for many many months. 50000 was hit and a pullback expected. If you think my 50000 target was moronic when we were at 70000, I still do not care at all what you think about my 40000 target at 56000.
4h 20ema seems resistance again and bears trying to keep it below. It currently runs at 57100, which means I expect a trade back down to retest 50000. Bears could once again not get a decent daily close below 52000 for now, so the bull gap has gotten smaller but is still valid. The next bull gap is from 47000 - 50600 and that will be closed over the next weeks.
current market cycle: bear trend - leg 2 is from 70015 down to 49111. Measured move down would be 32000 and that’s almost exactly the breakout retest of the 2023-07 high
key levels: 491000 - 58000
bull case: Bulls first target is a 1h candle close above 57000 because the last close above the 4h 20ema was a week ago. If they could manage that, their next target is the bear trend line test around 59000. For now they are inside a weak bear flag with much two sided trading.
Invalidation is below 49000.
bear case: Only viable question for now is when most bears want a retest of the lows again. That is a 8000 point trade and I’d like to get some of dat. My uber strong bear case would take a hit if bulls get above 59000 but as of now I see it as very low probability. Bears also see this bear flag already had 4 pushes up and is technically ready to break down any moment. Many of the recent sell offs happened outside of EU or US trading hours, so I expect the same.
Invalidation is above 59000.
short term: full bear mode until we reach 40000
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 1-3 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged since March, obviously updated the time range which was 6-9 months before. —
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Nah, not going there today.
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