After the release of employment data last Friday, the Sahm rule was triggered and the FUD of recession swept through various financial assets. The stock market and BTC both suffered a very significant correction. But is this really the case?
After the employment data was released, BTC and US stocks were the first to react, with US stocks remaining volatile after opening lower on Friday. BTC dumped over the weekend and drove the Asia-Pacific stock market. But gold did not rise. Even under the dual momentum of Iran's potential attack on Israel and recession expectations, it only fluctuated and did not price recession.
Another point that has been ignored by the market is that as a leading indicator of recession, U.S. bond yields have been inverted for a long time. The market once priced in a recession in 2023 because of the inversion of U.S. bond yields, but now ignores it at this point.
We don’t deny the recession. But we may have already been in it, and the market’s reaction was too violent, at least for BTC and Asia-Pacific stock markets. The volatile upward trend of U.S. stocks after opening lower on Monday, as well as the pullback of XAUUSD, prove this view. Therefore, from a macroeconomic perspective, we do not believe that there is room for further dumping of various financial assets, or that bullish strategies are better than bearish ones.
BTC’s performance last week showed the smallest loss compared to other tokens. And yesterday there was a long downward pin-bar. Judging from the WTA indicator, although the decline has started in the past few days, there are not many blue columns representing whales. Until yesterday, the number of blue columns increased significantly. We believe this shows that whales began to buy the bottom after BTC broke through 50000. The dump brings the ME indicator close to turning bearish.
To sum up, we believe that BTC may mainly fluctuate this week, with the probability of upwards being greater than downwards. We lower support to 52500 and resistance to 58000. If this resistance level is broken down, the next level will be 60000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
After the employment data was released, BTC and US stocks were the first to react, with US stocks remaining volatile after opening lower on Friday. BTC dumped over the weekend and drove the Asia-Pacific stock market. But gold did not rise. Even under the dual momentum of Iran's potential attack on Israel and recession expectations, it only fluctuated and did not price recession.
Another point that has been ignored by the market is that as a leading indicator of recession, U.S. bond yields have been inverted for a long time. The market once priced in a recession in 2023 because of the inversion of U.S. bond yields, but now ignores it at this point.
We don’t deny the recession. But we may have already been in it, and the market’s reaction was too violent, at least for BTC and Asia-Pacific stock markets. The volatile upward trend of U.S. stocks after opening lower on Monday, as well as the pullback of XAUUSD, prove this view. Therefore, from a macroeconomic perspective, we do not believe that there is room for further dumping of various financial assets, or that bullish strategies are better than bearish ones.
BTC’s performance last week showed the smallest loss compared to other tokens. And yesterday there was a long downward pin-bar. Judging from the WTA indicator, although the decline has started in the past few days, there are not many blue columns representing whales. Until yesterday, the number of blue columns increased significantly. We believe this shows that whales began to buy the bottom after BTC broke through 50000. The dump brings the ME indicator close to turning bearish.
To sum up, we believe that BTC may mainly fluctuate this week, with the probability of upwards being greater than downwards. We lower support to 52500 and resistance to 58000. If this resistance level is broken down, the next level will be 60000.
Disclaimer: Nothing in the script constitutes investment advice. The script objectively expounded the market situation and should not be construed as an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any cryptocurrencies.
Any decisions made based on the information contained in the script are your sole responsibility. Any investments made or to be made shall be with your independent analyses based on your financial situation and objectives.
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