Decoding the 70,000 Call Strike: What CME Options Are Tell Us

26 окт.

Alright, let’s break this down. We’ve seen a significant influx of call options at the 70,000 strike on the CME, which is generally a pretty positive signal. Especially when you consider the recent breakout from a descending broad channel, with prices holding just above that upper boundary. Looks like we’re heading up—clear signal, right?

But here’s the kicker: the CME gives us the tools to dig deeper. We can analyze whether that influx at the 70,000 strike is coming in as naked options (which is a good sign) or if it’s part of a more complex strategy. So, what did we find? The 70 000 call options were bought simultaneously with Futures in a 2-to-1 ratio. In other words, we’re looking at a synthetic options portfolio that resembles a "Straddle". This means they’re betting on volatility, expecting the price to move significantly in either direction—not just sitting still. Plus, there are specific timeframes and expected movement ranges involved.

So, what’s the takeaway from this example? I often come across analyses that say, “Calls at this strike are rising, so traders must be feeling bullish.” Not necessarily! Those bought calls could be neatly packaged in a Straddle or even transformed in a Naked Put using Bitcoin futures (what we call a “Synthetic” setup), which would imply completely opposite expectations for price movement.

Don’t just take others’ word for it—dive into the basics at least, but ideally, get a solid grasp of the area you’re analyzing before integrating it into your trading system and building your trading plan around it. Stay critical and don’t fall for clickbait headlines! Good luck out there!

29 окт.

Заметка

Just a couple of days ago, I pointed out that a Synthetic Straddle had popped up in the market, hinting at some serious price action ahead (it doesn’t really matter which direction for this portfolio). The key takeaway here is that the price is set to move—and move confidently.

So, what are we seeing today? The price is charging north with a lot of energy, and it hasn’t even been a full day since this Trader entered the scene!