Bitcoin seasonality - Which month is the most profitable?

30 авг. 2022 г.

As you can see on the chart, the best month is April. Usually, you don't want to short Bitcoin in April at all. I would avoid intraday or swing short trades on the futures market completely. On the other hand, September is a bloody month. Will this September experience a big crash? It is possible, but of course, it's not a guarantee. September starts in 2 days, and let's see if bears will step in. We can have a nice bullish start to the month, but later it can be nasty.

I really don't want to see another leg down to 13 000 USDT because this would indicate a complete impulse wave from 69 000 USDT to 13 000 USDT. Then we will look for a retracement back to 25 000 USDT to 37 000 USDT as an ABC correction, and then we can expect another impulse wave down to 3000 USDT as a zigzag correction on the monthly chart. In this case, the major impulse wave from 2009 to 2022 can be considered completed. After the drop to 3000 USDT, we can finally start a new bull market with a price target of 1 000 000 USDT and more.

• Average return by month (%):

January: -1%
February: +8%
March: +3%
April: +29%
May: +19%
Jun: +11%
July: +7%
August: -2%
September: -10%
October: +13%
November: +21%
December: +7%

• Average return by weekday (%):

Monday: +0.53%
Tuesday: +0.19%
Wednesday: +0.41%
Thursday: +0.22%
Friday: +0.16%
Saturday: +0.24%
Sunday: -0.05%