BTC Feeble Rally on Powell and NFP Expect Final Fall to 12k

3 дек. 2022 г.

Multi Timeframe Analysis

Powell's latest dovish statements rallied stocks to new highs. Most indices are now over their Weekly 50 EMA signifying risk on attitude. NFP momentarily crashed US500 and US30 but the same recovered all lossses within the same day.

What next: BTC should continue to 18k , a maximum of 20k before dropping to a terminal bottom between 8k to 12k.

Narrative:

1. Price hit a bullish order block at 16200 on the 4 hour chart. Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. Trader's Dynamic Index and MFI signify bearish momentum. CCI continues to languish below -100 implying bear power.
3. RSI on daily weekly and monthly cannot penetrate over its 50 neutrality zone.
4. Bearish Buttterfly and Anti Cypher harmonic pattern in place. Target price is 12k. Lowest possible stands at 3964 which is consistent with our November 2021 forecast.
5. Fundamentally a December to January rally is imminent as is historically observe. Next year will be tax month and investors will resume heavy selling to pay liabilities.
6. FED Pivot- when it comes- will lead to the final capitulation.

Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks and harmonic entries, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.

Let me plug in my favorite cryptos to continue DCAing in over the next 4 mos:

QNT
HBAR
NEAR
DOT
ATOM
AVAX
PYR
SAND
GALA
ENJIN
MATIC
IMX
EWT
ARWEAVE
and recently.... KASPA

Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution

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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.

-=ENTRY RULES=-

Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.

Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe

For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:

When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs

For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line

For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line

Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.

About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).

In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles. Do your own research.