Big-picture trading strategy revisited

20 сент. 2023 г.

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(BTCUSDT chart)

If it does not fall below the downtrend line, it is likely to rise.

An increase in trading volume is needed to break above the current price position, that is, near the M-Signal indicators on the 1W chart and 1M chart, but there is a possibility that it is holding it back from rising.

The reason may be to achieve a large increase at once.

The point that must be penetrated at once is above the 30495.92 section and above the point where the trend line of the 1W chart intersects.



Only then can you have the opportunity to break upward through the section your finger points to.


Any rise outside the current box is likely to lead to BTC's dominance.

Therefore, those who mainly trade altcoins need to be careful.


This is because once BTC's dominance begins, most altcoins are likely to gradually move sideways or show a downward trend.

The reason for this is that funds will be concentrated towards BTC for next year's BTC Halving.



This phenomenon is expected to gradually unravel once BTC dominance rises above 61.

Therefore, it is expected that that will be the time to purchase altcoins in earnest for the BTC halving.


If it touches the HA-High indicator of the 1M chart on the BTC chart and shows support, we expect that that will be the point where the coin market's full-fledged upward trend begins.


The next period of volatility for BTC will be around October 3rd.

Accordingly, there is a possibility that the day trading period may come to an end.

Therefore, we must prepare for the period of great volatility that will follow.

Periods of high volatility are likely to be the last decline before a full-fledged uptrend, that is, the section that forms a pullback.

However, this movement cannot necessarily be viewed as being expressed as a decline.

This is because it can show a big uptrend and then fall again, creating a pullback pattern.


Therefore, now is the time to focus on buying BTC or ETH.

I think that BTC 29K or lower is possible at this time.

If BTC rises above 29K, there is a high possibility that you will not buy BTC or ETH because you will think that it is more profitable to buy altcoins than to buy BTC or ETH.


For altcoins, the first purchase is completed when BTC is below 29K, and the second purchase is carried out when BTC is in the range of 32K-43K.


After that, full-scale purchases can be started after confirming support from the HA-High indicator of the 1M chart mentioned above.

This is the big picture, trading strategy in preparation for the BTC Halving next year.


Changing the big-picture trading strategy like this means that all trading strategies have been designed incorrectly, so an unprecedented situation will arise where all trading must be stopped.

Therefore, the big picture trading strategy should not be modified.

If you cannot create a big-picture trading strategy, you need to be careful because you cannot start trading from a long-term perspective, that is, farming.

Long-term trading, i.e. farming, is a mental battle.

That's why being able to stabilize one's psychological state is an important factor.

Therefore, if you cannot plan a big-picture trading strategy, you will not be able to trade from a long-term perspective because you will not be able to withstand changes in psychological state caused by price volatility.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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21 сент. 2023 г.

Заметка

(BTCUSDT chart)

The movement from August 29th to 31st and the movement from September 18th to 21st can be considered the same.

However, there is only a difference in the fluctuation range.

If you look at the movement of the StochRSI indicator at that time, you can see that it is also a similar movement.


However, there is one big difference.

Previously, the MS-Signal indicator was indicating a decline, but now it is indicating an increase.

Therefore, although it fell near the range where it started rising, that is, around 26101.77-26189.99.

However, if the price remains around this level, it is expected to continue its short-term upward trend.


Since the next volatility period is around October 3 anyway, there is a high possibility that it will sideways in the current box range before then.

Please refer to the text above for information on leaving the box section.

22 сент. 2023 г.

Заметка

(BTCUSDT chart)

BTC is still slowing down.

I think the reason it remains in this state is because we have not yet moved out of the day trading period, that is, the profit realization period.

I believe that this period corresponds to a period of trend change to begin a full-fledged upward trend after experiencing a period of great volatility.

Therefore, purchasing BTC or ETH at this time is a purchase from a long-term investment perspective.

Therefore, it is not suitable for day trading and short-term trading.


Depending on your investment style and trading strategy, you can either engage in day trading or purchase with a long-term perspective.

When BTC is below 29K, it is recommended to purchase BTC or ETH intensively and take a long-term perspective.

However, you must be able to secure cash to purchase additional assets in the event of a major decline during the upcoming period of great volatility.


From a long-term perspective, it is best to conclude the purchase of altcoins as a first purchase and wait.

If you want to buy more, it is recommended to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit through day trading.


There is a possibility that BTC will take the lead during periods of high volatility.

This initiative is expected to put many restrictions on the price rise of altcoins.

Therefore, it is highly likely that altcoins will gradually sideways or decline.

Therefore, when you see such purchases, it is recommended to gradually make secondary purchases.


Currently, BTC is trading sideways in the box section.

I don't think it makes much sense to make predictions based on these observations.

Now is the time to expand cash holdings by adjusting the proportion of investments in line with the upcoming period of great volatility, or to make purchases with a cash profit or long-term perspective through day trading.

23 сент. 2023 г.

Заметка

(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator appears to have entered the oversold zone.

Accordingly, if the price remains near the MS-Signal indicator or above 26101.77-26189.99, it is expected to rise.

However, you need to check the movement when it leaves the oversold zone.

24 сент. 2023 г.

Заметка

I think the coin market is showing a move to end the profit realization period and day trading period.

Once this period ends, a period of great volatility is expected to begin.

Periods of great volatility may result in higher or lower prices.

However, I expect that it will eventually create a large pull back pattern.

At this time, you must seize the opportunity.


These opportunities are actually not easy to recognize.

However, you must secure cash by adjusting the investment proportion of coins (tokens) currently being traded, and seize the opportunity when the bottom of the pull back pattern is completed and an upward trend is confirmed.

This is because we believe this opportunity will provide a buying price that can be held until the BTC Halving next year.