BTC on the Brink of a Massive Breakout?

12 июл. 2023 г.

On the daily timeframe, BTC is in an ascending wedge pattern that has had few confirmations. The price is now really in waiting mode, just below the higher range of the wedge.

While this pattern is usually bearish, the fact that the price is paused in the higher end of the formation means that the price is also ready to break to the upside, just waiting for a catalyst. This spark can come in the form of a FED announcement (see events today section)

The 4h chart shows us a tight range that we have been in for the last 3 weeks.

The whole crypto market is hesitant at the moment, and finding good setups isn't easy because of sub par risk/reward ratios and fundamental neutrality. Usually altcoins increase when bitcoin is ranging but the fact that they are not leads us to believe that the consensus is unclear.

Personal take:

We hate not being clear in our predictions therefore we are going to give you arguments for both possibilities, up and down.

The Bull scenario:
Range acts as a trampoline to bust the price out of the formation following FED announcement as a catalyst. price projections would lead us to levels nearing $37740

The Bear scenario:
Price fails to reclaim and close above the formation or fakes out in a manipulation tactic, liquidates traders tha are correct in the direction prediction but not in the stop loss, grabbing the liquidity and selling the positions that were opened in the $24 k area, then continues to the bottom of the wedge. A break on the down side of the wedge would be catastrophic for Bitcoin.