Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis. Altseason.

3 дек.

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The Bitcoin price is trading within a narrowing price range, formed after an unsuccessful test of the major resistance block at $100,000, followed by a correction to the 0.23 Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent consolidation. This has resulted in the formation of a pattern known as a narrowing wedge, the breakout of which could indicate the next direction for BTC price movement.
If buyers, supported by fundamental factors, manage to break through the psychological resistance level of $100,000, we can expect a strong upward momentum toward the next resistance zones at $110,000–$120,000 and a test of the global trendline resistance.
Conversely, if sellers push the price below the $90,000 support block and establish themselves beneath the EMA 200 line, we anticipate a corrective move toward the 0.5–0.61 Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels coincide with Imbalance zones, where consolidations are needed to close gaps in horizontal volume levels.



📉 Bitcoin market global analysis. When does the altseason start?

Bitcoin's dominance has begun a rapid decline, and we are currently witnessing an attempt to break out of a parallel price channel. If it manages to consolidate below the lower boundary of the channel, we can expect further declines in dominance, which would indicate the start of significant capital flows from Bitcoin to altcoins.

What are Bitcoin's long-term growth targets?
Above the current all-time high (ATH), there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to determine growth targets, we will rely on trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, analysis of large order block clusters in exchange order books, and, of course, indicators:

Fibonacci Extension Levels: The nearest growth targets for Bitcoin are the 1.61 and 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, which lie in the range of $104,000–$112,000.

Global Trendline: The next target could be the global trendline drawn based on the peaks of the previous growth cycle. A test of this trendline might occur around the $120,000 level.

RSI Analysis: The RSI indicator is currently about 18% away from its resistance trendline. Translating this to Bitcoin’s price chart, this corresponds to a range of approximately $114,000–$120,000. This is where a test of the resistance line may occur, as observed in all previous Bitcoin market cycles.



💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels

The Fear and Greed Index remains in the Greed Zone at 76.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown to $3.37 billion, while the Bitcoin Dominance Index has fallen to 56.18.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 100,000 and 120,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 80,000 - 90,000
🔴 Supply zone: 100,000 - 150,000

Levels for long positions:
90,000 - psychological support level
88,000 - large support block
60,000 - large support block

Levels for short positions:
100,000 - largest resistance block
110,000 - large resistance block
120,000 - 100,000 - ascending trend line of resistance



📊 Fundamental analysis

In November, Bitcoin ETFs recorded an inflow of $6.1 billion—the highest monthly figure since the instrument's launch in January. This indicates growing investor confidence in the asset while favoring the security of regulated ETFs over direct BTC purchases. Record inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could support a BTC rally above $100,000.

Ethereum and Altcoin Investment Trends
Investment inflows into Ethereum (ETH)-focused products reached $634 million, pushing the total for this year to over $2.2 billion, surpassing the previous record of $2 billion set in 2021. Similarly, Ripple (XRP)-based crypto funds received record-breaking investments of $95 million. This surge may be linked to preparations for ETFs on other cryptocurrencies, potentially accelerating the onset of an altseason.

Regulatory and Macroeconomic Developments
SEC Leadership Announcement: Tomorrow, information may emerge regarding the new chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a key financial regulator overseeing the crypto market. Under current chair Gary Gensler, the SEC has intensified crypto market regulation. The appointment of a crypto-friendly commissioner could boost market sentiment and further support the start of an altseason.

U.S. Labor Market Data: Labor market reports are set to be released this week, serving as a critical indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A continuation of rate cuts by the Fed would likely bolster overall growth in the cryptocurrency market.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 12/04, 21:45 - Speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

➤ 12/06, 21:45 - US Unemployment Rate for November.

➤ 12/18, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.

➤ 12/18, 21:00 - US GDP (q/q) (Q3)

➤ 01/29/2025, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In November, the price of Bitcoin was in an upward trend. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements. 😎
Total price movement by all signals: + 54.92%
Maximum price movement: + 42.10%
Average price movement: + 13.73%




In addition, I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin price action by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: