Probability vs Possibility

20 февр. 2018 г.

The battle that wages on every market, in every trade... Probability versus Possibility. Now I've seen SO MANY predictions and forecasts lately telling of breakouts, moons and lambos - It's disgusting. Why? Because while ANYTHING can happen (possibility), one must consider the chances of these events occurring (probability) . Now i don't mean to insult your intelligence by defining the words in such a basic means, I'm merely setting an argument. Let's consider Bitcoin for a moment, and where it is currently. IT IS STILL IN A DOWN-CHANNEL. It has NOT broken the resistance as of yet, and every time it's tried since it's fall in December, it has fallen further. Now the healthy channel of recovery is below us, it's baseline sitting in the 7.7K-8.2k zone. The green channel extending from this is the area in which Bitcoin feels comfortable. The most probable course of action is a fall, to either the 9-9.7k area before a reattempt at the resistance, or a straight skydive to the baseline. These two options are far more likely than bitcoin breaking out and seeing a new A-T-H. This is not just trade advice, this is life advice - Please consider the most likely course of actions before investing your hard earned money, before listening to all the hype, before letting yourself be led into disappointment. Now if I am wrong, if Bitcoin breaks the resistance and goes for a climb, you can jump aboard and sail the profitable seas at your leisure with slightly less profit than you could have. If i'm right however, you stand to lose up to 20-40% if you haven't taken the correct means of protection in a small and volatile time period. DON'T let emotion rule your decisions, this is a game of numbers and probability.
Whatever you decide, i wish you the best in the coming days :)