Trading Log Day 22 : BTC price

27 апр. 2020 г.

Let’s first relook at the 1D chart. There are a few key indicators we will need to be relatively careful of. As time passes, MA(144) has continued to develop, making the 7877 price point a relatively important resistance line ever since the plunge of BTC prices. The 7877 price point also coincides with the 0.5 level on the Trend Fib Retracement chart drawn on the 1hr graph. I have also drawn a Fibonacci Fan from swing high ( 10296) to swing low ( 3753) to determine the speed of the resistance. You can also observe that the point of confluence coincides with 7877 (assuming the price develops further towards) point 5 in the next two days. 

If the price of BTC successfully breaks the 7877 price point and has enough momentum to break the 8169 price point, we should see BTC prices to continue rising, however, if BTC prices fail to break the 7877 regions. We could potentially start viewing the start of a reversal. 

On the volume histogram, we see that BTC prices have been closing higher continuously for five days but with relatively shorter bodies and longer wick (tail) almost similar to Dojis. This could be nearly sign of losing buying momentum. However, we will still need to observe a confirmation on the candlestick pattern, for instance, a formation of a red candle engulfing to confirm the reversal. 

SMA line on the 1D chart is still relatively comprehensive apart, and the channels are all somewhat defined above the LMA lines. The D+ indicator is above 20, but the ADX value is below 20, indicating a relatively weak trend development.

When we look at the 1hr chart, we see that the prices of BTC are consolidating, moving between the 0 - 0.236 level of the trend Fib Levels. I have readjusted the Bearish Butterfly formation to include the new determined Point (D) at 7877 levels. Similarly from before, IF the price breaks this level, we should see the prices surging up towards the 8169 levels. But if it fails to break this level, we should see a reversal starting at Point (D)/(5) of the Butterfly pattern. If the reversal is confirmed, we can be considering multiple TP points at 7262, 6752 and 6450. Short order at 7224 just in case the retracement starts much earlier than expected. Price point 7224 coincides with Point B on the Butterfly pattern as well