Main Volatility Period: Around July 28th

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I'm back from vacation a little early and leaving some ideas.

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(USDT chart)
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USDT seems to be maintaining an uptrend.

It seems to have created a long tail this time.

We need to check if it can continue the gap uptrend.

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(USDC chart)
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We need to check if it can be maintained above 32.435B, which is considered an important point for USDC, or if it can continue the gap uptrend.

I think the gap uptrend of USDT or USDC is a trace of funds flowing into the coin market.

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(BTC.D 1M chart)
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We need to check if it can meet resistance in the 55.01-62.47 range and fall.

If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, the coin market is expected to show a large downtrend.

If it is maintained below 55.01 or shows a downward trend, I think it is highly likely that the altcoin bull market will begin.

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(USDT.D 1M chart)
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However, USDT dominance must be maintained below 4.97 or show a downward trend.

Therefore,
- BTC.D: below 55.01,
- USDT.D: below 4.97
If the above conditions are met, the coin market is highly likely to show an upward trend.

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(BTCUSD 12M chart)
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The BTCUSD chart is an INDEX chart provided by TradingView.

Based on this chart, we can see that it has been in an upward trend for 3 years and in a downward trend for 1 year.

Therefore, if it follows these rules, it is expected to continue its upward trend until 2025.

Therefore, if it continues to rise until 2025, it is expected to rise to around 1.618 (89126.41).

If it rises to its maximum, it is expected to touch around 2 (106275.10).

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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
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According to the explanation of the BTCUSD chart above, there is a section that must be guarded in order to continue the upward trend.

That section is the 2nd section (56K-61K).

If not, if it falls below 56K and shows resistance, it should check whether it is supported in the very important section of 42283.58-43.160.0.

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If you look closely at the 2nd section, you can see that it corresponds to the previous high section.

Therefore, if it receives support near the second section, I think it is highly likely that the buying force will increase and show an upward trend.

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Since the StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, we can see that the downward strength has increased.

Therefore, we can see that support near the second section is important.

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
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The 65920.71 point is the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart.

Therefore, a full-scale uptrend on the 1W chart can only begin if the price is maintained above the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart.

If not, it will act as resistance.

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The important rising channel corresponds to the channel where the rising wave started.

Therefore, if it falls below this important rising channel, it is highly likely to form a new trend, so we need to check if it can rise along this rising channel.

Therefore, if it falls below 56K, it should be interpreted as highly likely to create a downward wave.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
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Looking at the 1W chart, there is a period of volatility around the end of July.

Therefore, based on this, looking at the 1D chart, it corresponds to the main volatility period around July 28.

However, it is expected that volatility will begin around July 15 and full-blown volatility will appear around July 28.

Depending on the direction it moves during this volatility period, I think it is highly likely that a trend will be created around August 12.

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What we need to check as we pass this period of volatility is what it looks like in the important support and resistance areas.

Important support and resistance areas are:
1. HA-High indicator point (65920.71) on the 1W chart ~ HA-High indicator point (67614.25) on the 1D chart

2. HA-High indicator point (61099.25) on the 56K ~ 1M chart

3. 42K ~ 43K

You should check what kind of movement is shown around 1 ~ 3 above.

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Currently, the StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend after touching the highest point of the overbought zone.

However, it is still in the overbought zone and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, so you can see that the upward strength is still strong.

Therefore, rather than judging that it will fall soon and proceeding with a trade in advance, I think it is better to take some time to check the situation.

The 61099.25 point is where the HA-High indicator of the 1M chart is about to be created, so if it receives support near this point, it is likely to show a stepwise upward trend.

Therefore, you should consider your average purchase price, but if the average purchase price is formed below 61099.25, it is recommended to watch the situation a little longer.

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Since it has just come out of the short-term downtrend channel, it is highly likely that a support zone will be formed.

Accordingly, there is a possibility that a pull back pattern will be shown.

Therefore, if a pull back pattern is formed, it is expected to be around 59053.55-61099.25.

This is because it will prevent it from re-entering the short-term downtrend channel.

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The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that a low zone has been formed, and the fact that the HA-High indicator was created means that a high zone has been formed.

Therefore, in order to form a trend, it must fall below the HA-Low indicator or rise above the HA-High indicator.

If not, it will form a box section, i.e. a sideways section.

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To summarize the above,
1. The start of a full-scale uptrend requires the price to be maintained above 67614.25, which corresponds to the last buying period and a stepwise uptrend is likely to begin.

2. If it fails to rise above the HA-High indicator, it is likely to fall near the HA-Low indicator, and if it falls below the HA-Low indicator (57754.37), a stepwise downtrend is likely to begin.

3. The main volatility period is around July 28, but volatility is likely to occur around July 15.

Depending on the direction of movement during this volatility period, it is likely to form a trend around August 12.

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Have a good time.
Thank you.

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- ​​Big picture
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It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K.

The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K.

#BTCUSD 12M
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1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.

Since I think it can create a new trend in the overshooting section, I need to check the movement when this section is touched.

#BTCUSD 1M
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If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to create a pull back pattern and start after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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Заметка
#BTCUSDT
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The StochRSI indicator has touched the highest point of the overbought zone.

Therefore, we need to check where the candle closes today.

Since the HA 5EMA indicator is passing around 62772.01, it is important to find support around this area.

If not, there is a possibility of a short-term decline.

However, since the MS-Signal indicator, that is, the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, is passing over 61099.25, if the price is maintained above 61099.25, it should be interpreted that the upward trend is being maintained.

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The HA 5EMA indicator refers to the 5EMA indicator of the Heikin Ashi candle.

Therefore, if it falls below the HA 5EMA, it can be seen as a downward trend from a short-term (day trading) trading perspective.

In that sense, if it falls below 62772.01, I said that there is a possibility of a short-term decline.

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The 64K point corresponds to the upper point of the HA-High indicator box on the 1M chart.

Therefore, the 64K point is a meaningful point that can act as support and resistance.

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If you have read the previous explanation, I think the current explanation will be more understandable.
Заметка
#BTCUSDT
The chart below is a chart that shows the movement of indicators by unpacking the BW indicator of the TS - BW indicator.

The BW indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates and expresses MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTend indicators.

Therefore, when the BW indicator shows a downward trend from the highest point (+50), you should think about a response strategy for selling, and when it shows an upward trend from the lowest point (-50), you should think about a response strategy for buying.

When this happens, you should check the movements of indicators such as HA-Low, HA-High, and MS-Signal (M-Signal) and determine whether you can proceed with the transaction depending on whether there is support.

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The important thing in trading is to decide the investment period, investment size, trading method, and profit realization method.

Therefore, even if there is a slight problem with the trading period, it is recommended to conduct the transaction as a split transaction because there is a possibility of closing the transaction with profit depending on the trading method.

In order to provide the information necessary for such split transactions, it is necessary to be able to check various support and resistance points such as HA-Low, HA-High, and MS-Signal indicators.

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TS - There is a possibility of conducting a transaction based on the correlation between the BW indicator included in the BW indicator and the StochRSI indicator.

When the BW indicator is at its highest point, you can see that waves occur according to the movement of the StochRSI indicator.

Therefore, you can know when to conduct a split transaction based on your average purchase price or find a time to conduct a new transaction.

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(1M)
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After the price rises, it shows a sideways movement for about 5 months, and the HA-High indicator is showing a new appearance.

Therefore, it is important to see whether the HA-High indicator can be supported and rise near that point after it is created.

(1W)
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It is showing signs of rising above the HA-High indicator.

Therefore, if it is confirmed that it is supported near the HA-High indicator, it is a time to buy.

However, since it is highly likely that an upward trend will begin only when it rises above the upper point of the HA-High indicator box, you should check the situation while taking short-term measures until then.

If it falls below the lower point of the box, it is highly likely that it will turn into a downward trend, so you should think about a response plan for this.

(1D)
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Since it has not risen above the HA-High indicator, it cannot be said that an upward trend has begun yet.

Therefore, it is important to check whether there is support near the HA-High indicator.

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The above explanation is about some of the indicators expressed in the chart.

Therefore, it may be difficult to comprehensively understand the contents expressed in the chart.

However, since I have explained the key elements for interpreting the chart, if you continue to look at the chart, the chart will become more and more noticeable.
Заметка
#BTCUSDT
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It is showing an upward trend near the HA-High indicator (67614.25) on the 1D chart.

This is an upward trend above the medium- to long-term rising channel.

However, in order to clearly say that it has broken out of the medium- to long-term rising channel, the price must be maintained above 67614.25.

This is because it is judged that it is highly likely to show a full-fledged upward trend.

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The main volatility period is around July 28.

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The reason is that the week before and after July 29 is a volatility period when looking at the 1W chart.

Therefore, I do not think that the current movement can be determined to have turned upward.

Since the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart is formed at 65920.71, it is important to confirm the support near 65920.71.

The trend formed after passing the volatility period around the week including July 29 is likely to form a full-fledged trend after passing the volatility period around the week including September 16.

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If we look at this again on the 1D chart, we need to check how the trend is formed after passing the volatility period around July 28.

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The chart displayed only with the HA-Low and HA-High indicators is as follows.

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You can refer to the area marked with a circle.

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The formation of the HA-High indicator means that a high point section has been formed.

The fact that the HA-High indicator has risen in steps can be interpreted as a high possibility that a full-scale uptrend will continue.

Then, if the HA-Low indicator is created one day, it is necessary to consider that the uptrend has been reset and check what kind of trend will be formed in the future.

This is because the creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point has been formed.

Therefore, the movement and support of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators must be checked.

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If support is confirmed near the HA-Low indicator, it is a time to buy.

And, the area near the HA-High indicator is a time to sell in installments.

This is because the creation of the HA-High indicator means that a high point has been formed.

In other words, there is a possibility that a resistance area will be formed near the HA-High indicator.

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If the HA-Low indicator is created and falls below the HA-Low indicator, there is a high possibility that a stepwise downtrend will begin.

Therefore, you should think about a response plan based on your average purchase price.

Currently, it is only displayed as HA-Low, HA-High indicators, so it is not enough to create a detailed strategy for response.

Therefore, I would appreciate it if you think of it as an understanding of HA-Low, HA-High indicators.

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The reason why several indicators were added, as shown in the chart below, is to create a detailed trading strategy.

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Because there are too many indicators displayed, if you do not understand the indicators, you may create a strange trading strategy.

Therefore, we recommend that you activate or deactivate this indicator so that you can utilize it yourself.

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The current explanation is about HA-Low, HA-High indicators.

Therefore, we will tell you how to interpret HA-Low, HA-High indicators and use them to conduct trading.

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The basic concept is as follows.

If you see support near the HA-Low indicator, it is a time to buy.

And, if it rises and rises near the HA-High indicator, then that is the time for a split sale.

Conversely, you can use it to enter a SHORT position in futures trading.

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Therefore, since it has currently risen near the HA-High indicator, if you bought near the HA-Low indicator, it is the time for a split sale.

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However, if it rises above the HA-High indicator and shows support, it is likely to lead to a stepwise upward trend, so you can wait without a split sale.

You should decide this based on your trading strategy, that is, your investment period or investment size.

You should check the movements of all 1M, 1W, and 1D charts to confirm whether to continue trading or to partially end the trading with a split transaction.

The MS-Signal indicator (M-Signal on 1M, 1W, 1D charts) should be used in addition to the TS-BW indicator.

The MS-Signal indicator (M-Signal on 1M, 1W, 1D charts) is an indicator for viewing trends, while the TS-BW indicator is an indicator for viewing the strength of ups and downs.
Заметка
(About the HA-Low, HA-High indicators...)

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Initially, only the HA-Low, HA-High indicators were displayed.

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Accordingly, it was quite difficult to check whether there was support near the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.

To compensate for this, we added the display of the box section.

You can start trading based on the HA-Low and HA-High indicators, and use the upper or lower point of the box section as a split trading point.

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It currently has risen within the box section of the HA-High indicator.

It has not yet risen above the HA-High indicator and is showing support, so it is not the time to buy.

In order to utilize this indicator in my trading strategy, it is best to spend a lot of time checking the movement of the indicator.

In addition, you should understand what the core interpretation method of this indicator is and think about how to utilize this core interpretation method.
Заметка
(Recommended way to use HA-MS_VS indicator on minute chart)
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HA-MS indicator includes several indicators.

To use these indicators on minute chart, several tasks are required.

First of all, it would be good if the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts were displayed.

(Refer to the chart below)
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This is because the chart is likely to be formed following the trend of the big picture.

In that sense, it is recommended to activate the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart.

This is because then you can intuitively check the trend of the big picture.

Therefore, the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts play the role of support and resistance in the big picture.

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Most short-term trading (day trading) or futures trading do not last long.

This is because in order to last long, the investment size or leverage ratio adjustment must be changed from the beginning.

Therefore, you should select a trading chart considering your investment period.

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When looking at the minute chart, the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are actually important support and resistance points.

Therefore, I think it is best to find the time to start trading based on the movement around the 5EMA indicator on the 1D chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.

If not, you should check the movement in the HA-Low, HA-High, and superTrend indicators and proceed with the trade.
Заметка
#BTCUSDT
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It looks like it broke through the 2nd resistance zone upward.

Therefore, if it is confirmed that it is supported near 67614.25, it is possible to buy.

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That is, if it is supported near the HA-High indicator, it is possible to buy.

You can set the upper point of the HA-High indicator box as the first split sell point and create a detailed trading strategy.

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The stop loss point is the lower point of the HA-High indicator box.

Therefore, you need to create a trading strategy while thinking about how much investment weight to purchase and whether you can lower the average purchase price while purchasing in installments.

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The next volatility period is around July 28 (July 27-29).

This volatility period is expected to be an important volatility period in determining the trend of the second half of this year.

Therefore, it is also important to think about a medium-term trading strategy based on the trend that emerges after the volatility period.

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The trend that has formed after this volatility period is expected to become a clear trend after mid-September.

Therefore, it is expected to break out of the current sideways range of 56K-73K.
Заметка
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It seems that funds are flowing into the coin market.

I think the gap increase of USDT and USDC is a sign of this.

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Accordingly, BTC is showing an upward trend.

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However, if BTC dominance is maintained above 55.01, altcoins may gradually fail to follow the rise of BTC and move sideways or show a downward trend, so be careful.

If USDT dominance is maintained below 4.97 or shows a downward trend, the coin market is likely to show an upward trend.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the entire coin market will show an upward trend only if BTC dominance also shows a downward trend.
Заметка
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TS - The BW indicator of the BW indicator is at its highest point.

Accordingly, the BW EMA indicator is approaching its highest point.

Therefore, the BW EMA indicator is likely to intersect with the BW indicator in the near future.

If that happens, there is a high possibility of volatility, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.

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The StochRSI indicator and the StochRSI EMA indicator are showing an intersection in the overbought zone.

The core interpretation of the StochRSI indicator is that if it rises from the 0 point, the upward strength is strong, and if it falls, the downward strength is strong.

Therefore, I don't think it's good to predict future movements with the StochRSI indicator.

However, I think the StochRSI indicator is useful in that it creates waves in any case.

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BW indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates MACD, StochRSI, CCI, PVT, and superTrend indicators.

Therefore, when the BW indicator is at its highest point (when it is above +40) or at its lowest point (when it is below -40), you can tell that it is time for a change in trend.

That is why I think that the movement can be predicted to some extent by the correlation between the BW indicator and the StochRSI indicator.

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In addition, you should check the movement at the support and resistance points and create or modify a response strategy.

However, you should not change the basic trading strategy when you start trading.

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If you have previously purchased, that is, if you purchased near the HA-Low indicator or the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart, there is nothing you can do now.

Otherwise, if you are currently waiting to purchase, you can create a trading strategy based on the HA-High indicator.

When it shows support near the HA-High indicator, you need a strategy to lower the average purchase price by making split purchases. (This means that it is better to make split transactions if possible.)

The stop loss point should be set at the bottom point of the HA-High indicator box, and you should consider whether you can cut your loss when you see resistance near the bottom point of the box.

Then, you should consider how much investment weight you will make the purchase.

Otherwise, you will suffer a large loss when you cut your loss, so you may not be able to cut your loss and continue trading in the wrong direction.

The first sell point is the top point of the HA-High indicator box.

Therefore, when looking at day trading or short-term trading oligopoly, it corresponds to the first sell point.

If the price rises above the top point of the HA-High indicator box and maintains, there is a possibility that a full-scale stepwise upward trend will occur, so you can make a purchase again at that time.

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Currently, it can be seen as the high point of the stepwise uptrend of the HA-High indicator.

By meeting the HA-Low indicator, we should think that the stepwise uptrend of the HA-High indicator has been initialized and create a trading strategy that matches the next movement.

Therefore, since it has risen a lot so far, we should not predict that it will fall in the future and only think about countermeasures for the decline.

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I said that the rise was initialized by meeting the HA-Low indicator.

This initialization may lead to a larger uptrend in the future, but on the contrary, it may also lead to a stepwise downtrend.

Therefore, it is necessary to check for support and resistance by alternating between the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.

Accordingly, it is recommended to distribute the investment weight so that the purchase weight near the HA-Low indicator > the purchase weight near the HA-High indicator.

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On the other hand, you can think of it as an opportunity to trade with the current SHORT position.

However, since the current 1D chart's M-Signal > 1W chart's M-Signal > 1M chart's M-Signal, i.e., the alignment, it is judged to be disadvantageous to trade with a SHORT position.

Therefore, in order to trade with a SHORT position, it is better to trade short-term with day trading or short-term trading.

In order to proceed with a SHORT position for a short period or longer, it is important to first check the correlation between the M-Signal indicators of the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.

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It has risen out of the medium- to long-term rising channel.

Therefore, the key point is whether there is support at a certain point or section.

If it fails to gain support and re-enters the medium-term rising channel, there is a high possibility that selling pressure will increase as expectations for an increase are lost.

From this perspective, it is important to check for support around 65920.71-67614.25 during the volatility period around July 28 (July 27-29).
Заметка
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It showed an upward trend as it broke through the HA-Low indicator and the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator.

And, it touched the HA-High indicator.

Therefore, if the price is maintained above the MS-Signal indicator, the current movement should be considered a pull back pattern and a countermeasure should be considered.

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When the BW indicator is in the 40 ~ 50 range, if the StochRSI indicator shows a downward trend near the oversold zone and then an upward trend, that is, when it changes from the state of StochRSI < StochRSI EMA to the state of StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, you can find a trading point by checking whether there is support at the support and resistance points.

Therefore, you should be able to find an additional purchase point in the current pull back pattern.

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In that sense,
1st: 65920.71-67614.25
2nd: 63118.62-64000.0
You should consider a response plan depending on whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above.

Therefore, you should check what kind of movement it shows after the volatility period around July 28 (July 27-29).
Beyond Technical AnalysisBitcoin (Cryptocurrency)BTCBTCUSDBTCUSDTHA-MSTechnical IndicatorstradingstrategyTrend AnalysisUSDCusdt

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