When creating medium and long term trading strategies

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The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known.

(USDT chart)
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If it rises above 68.468B, there is a possibility that the coin market will start a bull market.

However, it is necessary to continue the upward trend with a gap.

(USDC 1D chart)
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If it rises above 47.374B, there is a possibility that the coin market will start a bull market.

If it falls below 39.675B-42.563B, there is a possibility that the coin market will enter a recession.


Since USDT and USDC are moving in opposite directions, it can be interpreted that the market is showing a mixed trend.

However, if USDT's funds are not withdrawn from their current position, the market is likely to recover faster than expected.


(BTC.D 1W chart)
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The key is whether it can decline after receiving resistance in the 43.75-45.68 section.

If so, I expect the uptrend to be extended until a decline near the 39.56-40.44 area.

Otherwise, if it rises above 45.68, there is a possibility that a strange market will be formed where only BTC rises, or the coin market will show a large decline.

The next volatility period is around February 21st.


(USDT.D 1D chart)
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The question is whether it can fall below 6.90.

A rise in USDT dominance means a fall in the coin market.

The next period of volatility is around March 3rd.

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(BTCUSDT 1W chart)
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Although the value of the RSI index, which is involved in the movement of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators, has fallen below 70, the HA-High indicator has not declined and remains the same.

Therefore, the question is whether BTC can continue its decline until the HA-High indicator declines.


If possible, you should see if it can lead to a picture in which the HA-High indicator is created with a decline when it fell around 20798.16, and the price continues to rise above the HA-High indicator point.

Otherwise, if it continues to fall, there is a possibility of touching the HA-Low indicator, so the movement when the HA-High indicator was created by falling is important.


In any case, it is currently in a state of transition to a mid- to long-term uptrend.

Therefore, it is unknown whether the current decline is a move to turn to the downside or a move to form a pull back pattern.

Therefore, it needs support near 20798.16 to maintain the medium- to long-term bullish trend.



(1D chart)
I touched the first section of the support section to make the handle of the cup pattern I mentioned before.

However, in order to complete the cup pattern mentioned in the textbook, it is necessary to touch the C section and rise.


The 21023.14-21853.06 section is formed by HA-Low (21023.14) on the 1M chart and HA-Low (21853.06) on the 1W chart.

Therefore, it can be seen that an important buying period has been formed from a mid- to long-term perspective.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the handle of the cup pattern can be made shorter.

The important thing is that the pattern is a problem that can be discussed after it is complete.

The fact that these patterns will be created in advance with numerous patterns is because there is a possibility of distorting and interpreting the chart flow without accepting it as it is.


Since the cup pattern mentioned this time is being generated with funds coming in through USDT, it was judged that there is a high possibility of creating a cup pattern.


There is also a possibility that the handle of the cup pattern can be made a little larger.

The interval is 19176.93-20050.02.

This section consists of the volume profile of the 1M chart and the volume profile of the 1D chart.

Therefore, this is because it is seen to form a stronger support section than other sections.


The market always beats our expectations.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the above-mentioned cup pattern may not be created and lead to further decline, so we must always accept the flow of the chart as it is and create a trading strategy.

The support section at this time is 15.4K-17.9K.


Thinking about the big picture hasn't changed.

If there is a movement that is large enough that the big picture needs to be corrected, then I will suggest the direction of the big picture again.

Something important enough that the big picture will be corrected is currently plotted on the chart.

That is the downtrend line (1).

As long as it does not fall below this downtrend line (1), the big picture written below will hold.


Therefore, I think this decline should be interpreted as a time to start buying in the medium and long term.

However, it is expected that the beginning will begin with BTC falling more than -10%.

The goal is to create a trading strategy to buy for next year's bull market.

If you misunderstand this and use all your money to buy, you will miss out on a good opportunity by selling midway through and not holding out until next year.

Therefore, this trading strategy should be tailored to the medium and long term perspective.

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(BTCKRW 1D chart)
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It is necessary to check whether there is movement out of the 27317000-29639000 section.

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- big picture
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A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.

This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market.

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** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** If you share this chart, you can use the indicators normally.

** The MRHAB-T indicator includes indicators that indicate points of support and resistance.

** Check the formulas for the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators at (tradingview.com/script/OUA6XoS6-HeikinAshi-MS-Signal-HA-MS/).

(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit or loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made by split trading. This is a short-term investment perspective.)

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Заметка
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As the price declines, the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is about to be created at 19917.3.

Accordingly, there is a possibility of falling to around 19917.3.


There is no change on the spot chart yet.

Therefore, on the spot chart, it is likely to be created below 19917.3.
Beyond Technical AnalysisBitcoin (Cryptocurrency)BTCbtcdominanceBTCUSDBTCUSDTBTCUSDTPERPTechnical IndicatorsTrend AnalysisUSDCusdtusdtdominance

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