Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

9 нояб. 2023 г.

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
The price of Bitcoin made an impulsive move, reaching a strong resistance level at 38,000. However, it couldn't overcome it and returned to the price channel. The driving force behind this increase was the news of progress in the approval process of a spot Bitcoin ETF for the major fund Grayscale. In the previous review, it was mentioned that after breaking out from the Pennant pattern, the price might rise to the height of the flagpole, i.e., up to 40,000-42,000. To continue the upward momentum, the price needs to consolidate above the upper boundary of the price channel.

However, we are currently witnessing a pullback in the price towards the dynamic support line EMA50. If the price drops below it and settles below the lower boundary of the price channel, we would expect a retest of the global trendline. Below it lies the Imbalance 1W zone, where significant gaps in horizontal volume levels remain to be filled through trading.

Additionally, it's worth noting the absence of a correction after the recent upward impulse. These factors increase the likelihood of a Bitcoin price retracement, at least to the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the upward trend.

This scenario could be invalidated if the price manages to break the resistance level at 38,000 and consolidates above it. News about the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF for funds like Grayscale or BlackRock could contribute to this. In such a case, we would anticipate a thorough completion of the Pennant pattern breackout, reaching 40,000 - 42,000.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, the price of BTC is once again testing the global ascending trendline. The RSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, indicating the need for a local corrective movement. If the price fails to establish itself above the trendline again, we can anticipate the completion of a Bearish Wedge pattern and a global correction of the entire growth from the beginning of this year, potentially retracing to the 0.38 Fibonacci levels. The psychological support level of 30,000 coincides with this Fibonacci level.

However, news regarding the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could provide another strong upward momentum. If this happens soon, the correction might be postponed once again.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 69.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,346 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has fallen to 52.92.
Based on the analysis of significant order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 27,000 - 30,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 38,000 - 40,000

Levels for entering long positions:
34,000-35000 - zone of potential retest of the trendline
30,000 - a psychological support level
28,000 - a retest of the 200-week moving average and the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level

Levels for entering short positions:
36,000-38,000 - a possible retest of the trendline on the logarithmic chart
40,000 - a psychological resistance level
42000 - a large resistance block




📊 Fundamental analysis

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing growth on news related to applications for the launch of the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. There is information circulating about Grayscale's negotiations with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the transformation of the company's BTC fund into a spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Bloomberg, a decision on the ETF may be imminent in the coming days.

In the crypto community, it is believed that the introduction of an ETF to the market could attract trillions of dollars in investments. Therefore, significant investors are reacting positively to the news, which could be a precursor to the launch of the first-ever spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.

The S&P 500, an index of the largest U.S. companies, has surpassed the dynamic resistance line EMA50, but a pullback is expected for a retest. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is forming a pattern known as an expanding wedge.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ November 14, 15:30 - Core CPI (MoM) for October.

➤ December 13, 2023, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.

➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.




📈 Is it possible to predict sudden Bitcoin (BTC) price action?

When the market is strongly influenced by news, we prefer to rely on signals from our trading indicator.
Our trading indicator, as always timely, signaled the current upward market impulse and provided the most advantageous entry points for long positions with minimal risk. Thanks to the latest updates, maximum take-profit levels were reached for all signals, and the price movement has been:
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