BTC.Prj.2019.P03E06.BTC.Change to Trend
Обновлено
First this is a technical version of the previous post. Link provided below.
Where does one start to explain this chart?
1st I'll attempt to explain what a FIB. Pitchfork is good for, a good trading indicator for trend change.
I learnt about this one early this year when a man showed how he identifies a change in trend. The video demonstrate (link below) that
anything that goes beyond the 100% range and moves towards the 200% range, is either over extended (an exhaustion move like a parabolic curve we recently observed) or in the realm towards a change in trend.
In this case, a bullish trend to a bear trend. Do not mix it with a bear market.
I've selected the red shade to highlight this range. Note you can use this tool also for a fib level channel.
Observations:
> on the 4 HRLY, we have the death cross which I have recently learnt means a cross over of the 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 HRLY. We just had this.
> 21 EMA still acting as resistance and now the 200% line on the fib.pitchfork
> Major resistance zone 0.5 fib retracement level (10650 to 11050) has rejected past weeks attempts
> The 0.382 fib level is the major support next, that is 9400, as per chart
> Note: CME Futures has a gap to be filled ranging from 8500 to 8900.
> On the 12 HRLY chart, one can see a slight chance of passing through the main resistance highlighted by the ichimoku cloud where resistance here has a weakness.
> Assuming I got the fib.pitchfork's right, one can observe the downward channel and its boundaries and how major lines play a role.
> Fib Fan supports the major lines for support and resistance, complimenting the hypothesis. Current fib fan is acting as the next resistance and hence supporting the
downward trend to continue. If there is a bounce, this line will be the major resistance.
Conditions:
> If price hits above 11500 and open and closes on the 4 HRLY above this point, then we can assume we are back into the upward channel as per fib.pitchfork channel.
This will be a major bullish sign and I would expect that we are back to the bull trend. I see this unlikely at this phase.
> What can do this, maybe the inverted H&S that everyone has hinted at
> If the expected bounce remains under the major resistance zone or the fib fan line or fib uptrend channel line (red line), then we can expect the downward channel to still be in play.
Conclusion
Assuming I got the fib.pitchfork's right, one can observe the downward channel and its boundaries. We can also observe how things can possibility play out with the
known resistance and support lines and hence why this hypothesis, points the movement towards where the reversal can take place.
NOTE: The RSI target level I selected is making a assumption that the 7500 to 8700 range will be sufficient for a bull trend to continue.
If it drops below this, I see the 5K as equivalent to the 3.5K level in 2017/18
Probability game:
Bias towards a weak rally to continue and battle with the main resistance.
The bids are disappearing as people are getting fear. So a selloff is to come. Maybe we have 2 main bounces left.
Alts look weak and the general markets are weak.
If we have new major news, then maybe it can be turned around into a ascending triangle.
BULLISH Version:
4 HRLY Chart:
Daily Chart:
Note RSI level, it looks like the same target hence the same level as in 2017/18 6K level.
CME futures chart:
Previous hypothesis, high level
Pitchfork video: It also helps understand parabolic instances and how we observed the exhaustion of this peak.
youtube.com/watch?v=AZxldKyT0HU&t=620s
Where does one start to explain this chart?
1st I'll attempt to explain what a FIB. Pitchfork is good for, a good trading indicator for trend change.
I learnt about this one early this year when a man showed how he identifies a change in trend. The video demonstrate (link below) that
anything that goes beyond the 100% range and moves towards the 200% range, is either over extended (an exhaustion move like a parabolic curve we recently observed) or in the realm towards a change in trend.
In this case, a bullish trend to a bear trend. Do not mix it with a bear market.
I've selected the red shade to highlight this range. Note you can use this tool also for a fib level channel.
Observations:
> on the 4 HRLY, we have the death cross which I have recently learnt means a cross over of the 50 and 200 EMA on the 4 HRLY. We just had this.
> 21 EMA still acting as resistance and now the 200% line on the fib.pitchfork
> Major resistance zone 0.5 fib retracement level (10650 to 11050) has rejected past weeks attempts
> The 0.382 fib level is the major support next, that is 9400, as per chart
> Note: CME Futures has a gap to be filled ranging from 8500 to 8900.
> On the 12 HRLY chart, one can see a slight chance of passing through the main resistance highlighted by the ichimoku cloud where resistance here has a weakness.
> Assuming I got the fib.pitchfork's right, one can observe the downward channel and its boundaries and how major lines play a role.
> Fib Fan supports the major lines for support and resistance, complimenting the hypothesis. Current fib fan is acting as the next resistance and hence supporting the
downward trend to continue. If there is a bounce, this line will be the major resistance.
Conditions:
> If price hits above 11500 and open and closes on the 4 HRLY above this point, then we can assume we are back into the upward channel as per fib.pitchfork channel.
This will be a major bullish sign and I would expect that we are back to the bull trend. I see this unlikely at this phase.
> What can do this, maybe the inverted H&S that everyone has hinted at
> If the expected bounce remains under the major resistance zone or the fib fan line or fib uptrend channel line (red line), then we can expect the downward channel to still be in play.
Conclusion
Assuming I got the fib.pitchfork's right, one can observe the downward channel and its boundaries. We can also observe how things can possibility play out with the
known resistance and support lines and hence why this hypothesis, points the movement towards where the reversal can take place.
NOTE: The RSI target level I selected is making a assumption that the 7500 to 8700 range will be sufficient for a bull trend to continue.
If it drops below this, I see the 5K as equivalent to the 3.5K level in 2017/18
Probability game:
Bias towards a weak rally to continue and battle with the main resistance.
The bids are disappearing as people are getting fear. So a selloff is to come. Maybe we have 2 main bounces left.
Alts look weak and the general markets are weak.
If we have new major news, then maybe it can be turned around into a ascending triangle.
BULLISH Version:
4 HRLY Chart:
Daily Chart:
Note RSI level, it looks like the same target hence the same level as in 2017/18 6K level.
CME futures chart:
Previous hypothesis, high level
Pitchfork video: It also helps understand parabolic instances and how we observed the exhaustion of this peak.
youtube.com/watch?v=AZxldKyT0HU&t=620s
Заметка
Another comparison with 2017/2018 peak with todays peak twitter.com/MustStopMurad/status/1153039206987554816/photo/1Заметка
Заметка
progress update #BTCЗаметка
adjusted targetsЗаметка
another perspective...critical point...scary because if it drops...down trend to continueЗаметка
How are we tracking with the channel, nearing the crossroad.
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
Telegram: t.me/TprospaTradersbot
This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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