BTC Momentum Tracker #3: August 18, 2024
Welcome to the third installment of the Momentum Tracker series.
If you're new to the concept of "momentum" as I use it, please refer to the following link:
This time, let's take a look at the longer-term 3-day chart. The bars with a yellow background indicate those where the momentum components' relationships were the same as the most recent bar. The comparison is based on the latest confirmed bar, which is the bar from August 13, and the comparison targets are the bars before that.
(This comparison was conducted using a tool I created called the HELIO Signaling Tool, which, like the Momentum Tracker, mechanically derives these relationships. Although the HELIO Signaling Tool is a separate indicator, here it highlights bars where the higher-to-lower order of the Momentum Tracker plots—bullish momentum, bearish momentum, total momentum, etc.—matches past occurrences. Theoretically, there should be no errors or omissions.)
Overall, it’s clear that the price trades downward soon after the highlights. At the very least, it’s not something that inspires an immediate bullish outlook. Therefore, regardless of how the current bar or the next one turns out, it's natural to expect a continued decline afterward.
So, how far might the decline go? Personally, I'm paying attention to the 36k level, which is indicated by another one of my auto-drawing indicators, the Dyanamic C-Forks[TheJackRabbit], but it might be too early to make any definitive statements about this. For now, let's focus on whether the trend of the yellow background continues in the next bar as well.
My recent forecasts:
If you're new to the concept of "momentum" as I use it, please refer to the following link:
This time, let's take a look at the longer-term 3-day chart. The bars with a yellow background indicate those where the momentum components' relationships were the same as the most recent bar. The comparison is based on the latest confirmed bar, which is the bar from August 13, and the comparison targets are the bars before that.
(This comparison was conducted using a tool I created called the HELIO Signaling Tool, which, like the Momentum Tracker, mechanically derives these relationships. Although the HELIO Signaling Tool is a separate indicator, here it highlights bars where the higher-to-lower order of the Momentum Tracker plots—bullish momentum, bearish momentum, total momentum, etc.—matches past occurrences. Theoretically, there should be no errors or omissions.)
Overall, it’s clear that the price trades downward soon after the highlights. At the very least, it’s not something that inspires an immediate bullish outlook. Therefore, regardless of how the current bar or the next one turns out, it's natural to expect a continued decline afterward.
So, how far might the decline go? Personally, I'm paying attention to the 36k level, which is indicated by another one of my auto-drawing indicators, the Dyanamic C-Forks[TheJackRabbit], but it might be too early to make any definitive statements about this. For now, let's focus on whether the trend of the yellow background continues in the next bar as well.
My recent forecasts:
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