The BTC Project 2019, Phase 01, Edition 02

6 мая 2019 г.

As I"m typing away for this post, I can see that the price is increasing within the defined downward wedge channel (in blue); CHART 1 and 3;
In a bullish market, one observes the 0.236 fib retracement usually as the 1st bounce phase to attempt to break the resistance. Followed by 0318, 0.5 or 0.618 fib retracement.
We are currently observing the bounce off 0.318 fib. in play.

Observations on CHART 1
> the Daily 20 EMA (gold line) is moving towards the 0.618 fib retracement level. Hence why I feel 0.618 is the number;
> ANX directions as per green and red arrows on the chart\indicator below;
> RSI direction or target, in sync with the fib retracements and targeting the read area for the bounce;
> Not sure about the potential for a tripple top; it can possible happen if the retracement fails and it goes beyond what we outlined here;

Since everything seems symmetric with the observed numbers, I'm going to use the 3 drive abcd model to articulate the movements of this btc trend.
The downward channel in my opinion will not go towards the bottom half of the main (the main chart) upward channel hence why I feel it will stay on the top half.
This also gives me another reason to leaning towards the 0.618 fib bounce. Maybe I'm hoping it is.

As for the target: Refer to CHART 2.
There is a strong resistance at 6200 which seems difficult to pass as it was tested many times and stood up as a strong support.
Hence like most people I put my money that it will reach it a but will receive a rejection which will ultimately see the change in trend towards the 4200 to 4700s.
There is a possibility that it will hit the green target (phase 1) area but very low probability.

My guess,
Conclusion:
I'm thinking BTC will fail to reach new highs with the bounce off 0.318 fib and stay within the downward wedge channel for 0.5 or 0.618.

CHART 1;


CHART 2;


CHART 3;


Linked to previous hypothesis >

6 мая 2019 г.

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Turns out to be Gartley pattern. Question is, in the bigger picture, was 0.318 fib the retrac. to form what is called the cradle to sling shot it more HH. Or is it a pattern
emerging?

6 мая 2019 г.

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A bit of an adjustment of the potential paths;

7 мая 2019 г.

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How are we tracking?

8 мая 2019 г.

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9 мая 2019 г.

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