9/20/24 - a PSA - FAFO Friday's (the long and short of it)

20 сент.

I try to stick to longs generally for a few reasons
- bc they can make much more money from a compounding situation
- shorting in a print-money-make-all-turds-float-market is truly miserable
- it takes 2x the effort to find shorts than longs and you have to babysit them

With that being said, sometimes i can't help myself esp when it comes to offsetting my longs AND given i look at a lot of things, i tend to develop a list of stuff that's (just being real) pretty easy to avoid on the long side even if it's a momo-situation.

So. For those paying attention, i have a short list of things that i'm short and while in the short term they've tended to move against me... i am still holding them. i'm that confident the longs are renting exposure and majority of owners (and the loudest voices) are pretty low IQ opinions of how to value stonks. Have written about these. so go check that out.

NN - worth a sneeze above zero, fundamentally

NYSE:PLTR - everyone who knows nothing about valuation but missed NVDA loves this but can't tell you how they value it

APLD - a BTC meme datacenter

SG - great salads, but owning the stonk is like meeting p diddy in the pen. salad toss freak stonk.

CAVA - a slightly better margin version of sg. great food. redonk valuation on stonk (mgmt btw has been dumping... you holding that bag lol)

WING - take a peek at the EPS vs. the valuation. if u enjoy paying 35x sales for NYSE:PLTR, you'll love paying 20x sales for a place that sells wings ;)

KRE - bc the banking biz won't fare well if the long end of the curve keeps rising in a "rates cut" environment. banks are fukt and nothing's been fixed. another FAFO situation.

so there you have it

F.A.F.O. Friday.

Have a wonderful weekend

V

(long book is 25% gdlc, 10% bitw, 15% nxt, 15% celh, 5% myps and some misc. including some meme shorts above)

for now we remain in the casino go up. so position in things that are cheap or trade at discounts that you understand and haven't become popular. keep some cash on the sidelines (i am still packing quite a bit given my CELH is leveraged w/ LT calls)... and keep an eye out. i can tell you that nobody knows what is going to happen next. so just have a game plan.