Long Term min. 60% profit opportunity in CDPROJEKT

24 апр. 2021 г.

DO YOU OWN RESEACH, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE ONLY MY OPINIONS: Price of CDR has significantly dropped since launch of Cyberpunk ~64%. Financial status of company is very good, they have GOG.com as cashcow and even sold Witcher again after Netflix serial so many years witcher will continue to sell (new RTX version is coming) I am sure they are already working on Witcher 4 You can see in their last presentation about how they will improve project magement and quality management that they will share the same works (sharing resources, game mechanics, core assets, work flows, algoritms etc.) btw Witcher and Cyberpunk. In my opinon this is a good long term signal as for me their mistake in cyberpunk is bad project and quality management for such huge scope of work and improper allocation of resources and prioritization (they allocated too much for art work instead of core mechanics) among so many features it looks like they are searching for "root causes" and implementing long term solutions)They don't hide they are working on witcher but only announced the enchanced graphics version for RTX. Everyone was worried about Cyberpunk refunds it looks like 500k copy (cdprojekt claim less but they count only their own, you should add xbox and other pratform refunds). But compared to 14M copy sold, 0.5 M refund is ok for me :) They have allocated 51M $ for all refunds in their budget, for a undervaluated 5B company 50M is nothing in my opinion. It looks like cyberpunk did not financial hurt the company but lost huge reputation. So the price driving factor will be not technicals but rumors and news. Cyberpunk news are contnuing and it looks like PR is very active, soon a good news can break the price upwards. They dont give up the game, they are fixing and releasing new DLCs, I believe the next price breakout will be when cyberpunk will be accepted back to playstore and there are rumors about offering dividend (a lot of selling disappointed polish people are in goverments old people with less technology knowledge and dividend yield can be a good carrot for them, for me dividend is not an attactive (5% profit divident profit compared to potential 64% price increase). As soon as rumors about witcher 4 price will skyrocket. But in their last presentation they said Cyberpunk hype was their mistake to increase expectations too much so next time they will not announce games too early. Means better buy now at the dip sell when playstore accepts cyberpunk back and then repeat the next dip and sell when witcher 3 RTX and 4 is announced :) But eventually current price point is good ffor long term investment and even some short term "buy the rumor sell the news" possibilities. (look at recent price jump to 240 :) people are waiting for a small sparkle of hope :) They also have some other games coming (VR, gwent card game etc.) but they will not have such dramatic impact like Witcher and Cyberpunk (they are already and will be cult titles like lord of the rings, dragonlance, dungean and dragons, warhammer and live many many years to come). Ok, cyberpunk player numbers look declining but in their latest patch people noticed in game files some potential new content for new dlcs (CDR already announced but no dates and names given), they already support mods (like GTA 5 so players will continue to experiment the game and amazing nightcity content) and there is a core player base from Cyberpunk lore.