OIL LIKELY TO TRADE RANGEBOUND
WTI oil currently trades in the upper part of lateral quarterly (66-day) channel, that is above the quarterly mean (now at 56) and below the 1st standard deviation from that mean (now at 62).
From the looks of it, WTI oil has a high chance of staying within current range (or at least close to it). Lets step back take a broader view of situation with oil markets.
Late 2014 plunge in oil prices resembled the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the price first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
Current situation in oil is different - the late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Additionally, there is no larger crisis on global markets at the moment.
Thus oil prices now have more probability to trade range-bound for extended periods of time (close to the 20-year moving average, now at 54.3), until the situation on global oil market is sorted out.
From the looks of it, WTI oil has a high chance of staying within current range (or at least close to it). Lets step back take a broader view of situation with oil markets.
Late 2014 plunge in oil prices resembled the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the price first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
Current situation in oil is different - the late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Additionally, there is no larger crisis on global markets at the moment.
Thus oil prices now have more probability to trade range-bound for extended periods of time (close to the 20-year moving average, now at 54.3), until the situation on global oil market is sorted out.
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