Ahead of Monthly oil reports the $50 key lvl for oil bulls

The oil bull momentum seems to be fading ahead of weekly inventories and Monthly oil reports from IEA and OPEC. The The inventories are expected to fall whoch this time could be tricky as last weeks we could se a strong built up in fuel and destilate invetnories which could eventually hold back refinery demand. In this case a surprise rise in inventories could break the neckk of the bulls at least for a while. Later the week we have OPEC and IEA monthly oil reprorts where the most important part will be the demand forecast. The question is if the demand growth can decelerate further.

In our opinion this can easily cause oil to drop to $49 lvl this week before it starts to rise again on the reports that actually oil production cut is happening. However if oil inventory estimates are right, further drop in oil stock may help to test the 53.30-54.65 zone earlier even this week.

R2 $53.31
R1 $51.30
S1 $50.00
S2 $49.00