Crude OIL Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022

5 дек. 2022 г.

Crude OIL Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022

We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 6.96%, down from 7.4% last week according to OVX data

With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 68th percentile, while according to OVX, we are on 85th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 4.9% movement
Bearish: 5.08% movement

At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 27.4% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 85.9
BOT: 74.1

Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
70% probability we are going to touch previous high of 83.5
30% probability we are going to touch previous low of 73.5/74


Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates 50% BEARISH trend
Daily timeframe indicates 66% BEARISH trend
4H timeframe indicates 26.3% BULLISH trend